Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions August 20th 2025

Senga Looks to Silence Nationals as Mets Aim to Extend Win Streak

The New York Mets are heating up at the right time, entering Wednesday night’s rubber match against the Washington Nationals riding a three-game win streak. First pitch is set for 7:05 PM ET at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, with clear skies and moderate temps expected.

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The Mets opened as strong -183 moneyline favorites behind Kodai Senga (7-4, 2.35 ERA), while Washington sends rookie Brad Lord (3-6, 3.26 ERA) to the mound. New York is clinging to a one-game lead in the NL Wild Card race and will be looking to maintain momentum after Tuesday’s 8-1 rout.

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The Mets Can Win If…

They keep launching bombs and Senga stays sharp. New York hit four homers Tuesday—two from Mark Vientos and solo shots from Brett Baty, Juan Soto, and Jeff McNeil, who also had a three-hit, three-RBI night.

Pitching Edge: Kodai Senga is winless in six starts since returning from a hamstring injury, but his ERA is a pristine 2.35. He’s 1-1 with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington, including a 5.2-inning, one-hit shutout back on June 12.

“He was an important player for us last year… we need him now and he’s going to continue to get opportunities,”
— Mets manager Carlos Mendoza on Mark Vientos

X-Factor: Jeff McNeil is 8-for-17 (.471) over his last four games and is locked in at the plate. If he and Vientos stay hot, the Mets can overwhelm the Nationals’ pitching.

The Nationals Can Win If…

Brad Lord delivers a steady outing and the offense finds gaps. Lord has a 3.60 ERA against the Mets in two outings this year but will need help from a struggling offense that’s produced just five hits in back-to-back games.

Offensive Needs: Dylan Crews has scored in three straight games and could spark the top of the order, while Andres Chaparro had two hits Tuesday and remains a consistent contact hitter.

“It seems like he’s definitely got something figured out against us,”
— Paul DeJong on Mets’ David Peterson dominance

Wild Card Spoiler Role: The Nationals rank 6th in stolen bases (106) and 9th in doubles (207), which gives them the potential to manufacture runs even without home run power.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

With the Mets fighting for a postseason spot and Senga on the mound, they have the upper hand in this matchup. The Nationals have been pesky at times but struggle to match the Mets’ firepower or consistency on the mound.

Model Projection: Mets 5, Nationals 3
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-183)
Total Lean: Under 8.5 (+101)

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