Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Predictions August 21st 2025

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Basketball Thu, Aug 21, 21:00 pm.
Las Vegas Aces
ML: -125
0
0
Phoenix Mercury
ML: 105
Last Updated on

Aces Target Ninth Straight Win in Key Showdown With Mercury

The Las Vegas Aces look to stretch their winning streak to nine games when they host the Phoenix Mercury Thursday night at Michelob ULTRA Arena. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET, as two of the WNBA’s top teams battle for playoff seeding in a high-stakes Western Conference clash.

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Las Vegas has surged into fourth place with a league-best eight-game win streak. Phoenix sits just ahead of them at 21-13 and is closing out a three-game road trip after wins in Seattle and Golden State. Aces lead the season series 2-1 and can clinch it with a win.

Opening Odds:

  • Aces Moneyline: -195
  • Mercury Moneyline: +165
  • Spread: Aces -4.5
  • Total: 166.5 (O/U: -110/-110)
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The Aces Can Win If…

They keep closing games with intensity. Tuesday night was a classic example of Las Vegas flipping the switch: down 10 with under nine minutes to play, the Aces went on a 13-0 run and outscored Atlanta 17-5 to win 74-72.

A’ja Wilson was unstoppable once again, putting up 32 points, 12 boards, and 5 blocks — making history with her third 30-10-5 stat line, the most in WNBA history.

“When we play defense like that, we become really hard to beat.”
Aces head coach Becky Hammon

The Aces rank 2nd in both points per game and opponent scoring. If they stay locked in defensively, they’ll be tough to beat at home.

The Mercury Can Win If…

They continue their efficient offense and tighten up early on defense. Phoenix shot a blistering 61.1% in the fourth quarter of Tuesday’s win over the Valkyries and held them to 32 second-half points.

Key Performers:

  • Kahleah Copper: 25 points vs. Golden State
  • Satou Sabally: 17 points
  • Phoenix: Shooting 51% from the floor over last two games

“We’re doing a good job of building on the things we want to correct.”
Kahleah Copper after Tuesday’s win

If Phoenix avoids a slow start and protects the ball, they can keep up with Vegas’ firepower.

Key WNBA Betting Trends

CategoryLas Vegas AcesPhoenix Mercury
Record22-1421-13
Last 10 Games8-27-3
Points Per Game85.2 (2nd)83.1 (4th)
Opponent PPG77.8 (2nd)80.2 (9th)
Home/Road Record13-5 (Home)9-9 (Road)

The Lean

This matchup feels like a playoff preview — and the Aces are playing with that level of urgency. With Wilson leading the charge and Las Vegas thriving at home, they hold the edge. Still, Phoenix’s offense is dangerous, which makes the over a viable play as well.

Model Projection: Aces 88, Mercury 81
Pick: Aces Moneyline (-195)
Spread Lean: Aces -4.5
Total Lean: Over 166.5

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