New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions August 28th 2025

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins August 28th 2025

The Miami Marlins will take on the New York Mets at Citi Field in New York. The game is scheduled for Thursday, August 28, 2025, at 7:10 PM. The Marlins have a 62-71 record and are third in the NL East. They have lost their last two games and have a 4-6 record in their last ten games.

The Mets hold a 72-61 record and are second in the NL East. They are on a three-game winning streak and have a 7-3 record in their last ten games. Adam Mazur will start for the Marlins, while Clay Holmes will pitch for the Mets. The weather forecast predicts overcast clouds with a mild breeze.

Marlins vs Mets Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
• Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
• Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
• Betting Odds: Marlins Moneyline +211, Mets Moneyline -258

The Marlins Can Win If…

The Miami Marlins recently faced the Atlanta Braves, where they lost 12-1. Despite the loss, Jakob Marsee and Derek Hill showed promise, each collecting two hits. Marsee has been a consistent performer, maintaining a .356 batting average, which is a top figure for the team.

Looking at the Marlins’ stats, they rank 7th in batting average at .249 and 8th in doubles with 218. These stats show their ability to make contact and get on base. Their 7th rank in stolen bases also highlights their speed and potential to create scoring chances.

Adam Mazur will start for the Marlins, aiming to improve from his current ERA of 6.35. The team has proven they can win tight games, as seen in their 2-1 victory against the Braves on August 25th. With players like Xavier Edwards and Agustín Ramírez in the lineup, the Marlins have the talent to secure a win.

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets are coming off a strong 6-0 win against the Philadelphia Phillies. Nolan McLean was impressive on the mound, pitching eight innings without allowing a run. Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo led the offense with key hits, helping the Mets secure the victory.

The Mets have shown solid performance in several key stats this season. They rank 4th in on-base percentage at .326 and 7th in slugging percentage at .424. Their pitching staff has also been effective, with a team ERA of 3.81, ranking them 7th in the league.

Clay Holmes will be starting for the Mets in their next game. With an ERA of 3.60 and a record of 11-6, he has been a reliable arm for the team. The Mets’ lineup, featuring Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, has the potential to provide the run support needed for another win.

The Lean

The Mets are favored with a moneyline of -258 against the Marlins at +211. The Mets have a strong pitching advantage with a 3.81 ERA, ranking 7th, compared to the Marlins’ 4.58 ERA, ranking 25th. My model projects the Mets to win with a score of 5-3, making them the recommended pick for this game.

The total line is set at 8.5 runs, with the over at -121 and the under at +100. The Mets’ solid pitching and the Marlins’ lower-ranked slugging percentage suggest a lower-scoring game. My model projects a total of 8 runs, so the recommendation is to take the under.

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Mets Aim to Ride Offensive Surge Into Opener vs. Marlins

The New York Mets return home Thursday with confidence after sweeping the Phillies and cutting their NL East deficit to four games. Their 6-0 win Wednesday capped a statement series, with New York outscoring Philadelphia 25-8 across three games.

Mark Vientos starred with a two-run homer and three RBIs in the finale, while the Mets collectively hit .568 (21-for-37) with runners in scoring position during the series. It was the kind of balanced attack manager Carlos Mendoza has been waiting for.

“There’s a lot to like, and we’ve got a lot of guys clicking right now,” Mendoza said. “Throughout the year, one guy would get going and two would cool off. Right now, we’re seeing guys clicking at the same time.”

According to MLB Scores & Odds, New York has scored a league-best 111 runs since Aug. 10, going 9-7 in that stretch.

Marlins searching for consistency

The Miami Marlins arrive at Citi Field struggling to find stability. After peaking at .500 with a sweep of the Yankees earlier this month, they’ve since dropped seven straight series and fallen 10 games back of New York.

In their latest set against Atlanta, Miami was competitive in a 2-1 win Monday but then outscored 23-3 over the final two games. Manager Clayton McCullough emphasized the need to attack the strike zone against a surging Mets lineup:

“When you face good offenses, you have to throw the ball over the plate and gain count leverage. We’ll flush this one quickly and move forward.”

The Marlins have not yet named a starter for Thursday’s opener after Janson Junk went to the injured list with nerve irritation.

Marlins’ recent skid

Mets’ rotation: Clay Holmes on the hill

Right-hander Clay Holmes (11-6, 3.60 ERA) will start for New York. Holmes is coming off a strong outing against the Braves, allowing just two runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 9-2 win.

Holmes has faced Miami 11 times in his career, holding a 2-1 record with a 4.05 ERA.

Probable pitching matchup

Keys to the series opener

Mets

• Continue executing with runners in scoring position.
• Holmes must set the tone early against a struggling Miami lineup.
• Build on momentum from the Phillies sweep.

Marlins

• Find stability in the rotation after losing Junk.
• Offense must generate more than the four hits that carried them Monday.
• Avoid letting the Mets’ red-hot lineup dictate pace.

Betting and outlook

The Mets’ surge has turned them into a serious wild-card contender. For bettors, MLB Picks suggest New York’s hot streak makes them the clear side in the opener.

Still, divisional matchups can surprise, especially if Miami’s pitching can slow down the Mets’ bats. The MLB Expert Betting Guide notes that tracking situational trends — like a team entering after a sweep — is key for handicapping series like this

Conclusion

The Mets have found their groove at the right time, and Citi Field should be buzzing for Thursday’s opener. With Clay Holmes on the mound and an offense firing on all cylinders, New York looks ready to continue climbing in the NL playoff race.

For Miami, the task is simple but daunting: slow down baseball’s hottest lineup.