Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Picks and Predictions August 29th 2025

Padres hope Luis Arraez will find his swing in series at Twins

The San Diego Padres enter their weekend series against the Minnesota Twins with plenty on the line in the National League playoff picture, but one storyline overshadows the standings. Luis Arraez, a three-time batting champion and one of the game’s most reliable hitters, is struggling to find his swing. After sitting out of the starting lineup on Wednesday, manager Mike Shildt is expected to slot him back into his traditional No. 2 spot on Friday as San Diego looks to bounce back from a tough series loss to Seattle.

Arraez, who still ranks among the league leaders in total hits and multi-hit games, is enduring his most prolonged slump in years. Over his last four starts, he has managed just two hits in 18 at-bats, dragging his August average down to .233. It is an unfamiliar position for a player renowned for spraying line drives to all fields and rarely striking out. Yet, as Arraez himself acknowledged this week, even elite hitters are not immune from prolonged dry spells. “I’m a human,” he said. “Every player has a bad year, bad weeks, bad months. I just try to work hard every day, do the little things to help the team win.”

Padres searching for stability in a tight NL West race

San Diego dropped a 4-3 decision to the Mariners on Wednesday, a defeat that stung even more once the Los Angeles Dodgers completed a sweep of the Reds later that night. The combination of results left the Padres two games back in the NL West, a reminder of how thin the margins are in a race that could come down to the final week.

The San Diego Padres have dealt with inconsistency for much of the season. Their pitching staff has been up and down, their offense has occasionally gone cold, and injuries have tested the roster. Yet despite those challenges, they remain firmly in the mix for both a division title and a wild-card spot. For bettors following MLB picks, San Diego has been one of the more unpredictable clubs, alternating hot streaks with frustrating skids.

Cortes steps up with season-best outing

One reason the Padres have stayed afloat is the recent form of left-hander Nestor Cortes. Acquired in midseason, Cortes endured a rocky introduction with San Diego, surrendering seven runs across his first three outings. But last Saturday against the Dodgers, he turned in his best performance yet, holding one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups to one hit across six scoreless innings.

Cortes admitted the outing felt like a reset. “Just going out there and being able to produce for those guys and just put up zeros every single inning, just give a team chance to win, I think that’s what the starting pitcher role is,” he told the Union-Tribune. That kind of consistency is exactly what the Padres need down the stretch. At 30 years old, Cortes has seen the highs and lows of MLB life, and his ability to navigate adversity could prove critical as San Diego navigates a challenging September.

Cortes has history against the Twins, entering Friday with a 2-2 record and 4.13 ERA in seven career appearances. While those numbers don’t scream dominance, his mix of deception and command could play well against a Minnesota lineup that has been pressing of late.

Twins trying to snap prolonged funk

If the Padres are looking for a turnaround from Arraez, the Twins are simply trying to regain their footing after a difficult stretch. Minnesota has dropped 10 of its last 13, capped by a 9-8 loss to Toronto on Wednesday in which the bullpen faltered late. Despite the defeat, Byron Buxton provided a reminder of his talent, clubbing two solo home runs. Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee also homered, but the power was not enough to overcome defensive miscues and pitching struggles.

The Twins have not won back-to-back games since early August, and frustration has been evident. Yet Buxton, one of the team’s leaders, insisted after Wednesday’s loss that the clubhouse remains unified. “You’ve got to keep each other up,” he said. “Just knowing they got my back — and they know I got their back — that’s what’s going to make us turn that page a little bit quicker. We’re going to be fine. That’s the exciting part about moving forward.”

For those monitoring MLB scores and odds, Minnesota’s slump has created volatility. A once-secure position in the AL Central is now under pressure, and every game against interleague opponents takes on greater importance.

Pitching matchup: Cortes vs. Matthews

Friday’s game pits experience against youth. While Cortes looks to build on his best outing of the season, Minnesota counters with 25-year-old Zebby Matthews, who has been searching for consistency in his first extended big-league run.

Matthews has struggled with command, allowing eight hits in 4.2 innings in his latest start against the White Sox. In his only career appearance against the Padres, he yielded five runs (two earned) in five innings, showing flashes but also vulnerability.

Arraez’s return to Minnesota

The storyline that will draw attention is Luis Arraez’s return to Minneapolis, where he won the 2022 American League batting title with a .316 average before being traded to Miami. Facing his former team could provide exactly the spark he needs to break out of his slump.

Arraez has not been immune to the streakiness that affects all hitters, but his track record is undeniable. Three batting titles across two leagues place him in rare company, and his ability to put the ball in play consistently is why the Padres acquired him. If he can rediscover that timing, San Diego’s lineup will instantly become more dangerous.

Key bats to watch

Both clubs have players capable of swinging the outcome in a single at-bat.

For San Diego, much of the offensive pressure falls on Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been one of their few consistent power sources. For Minnesota, Buxton’s health and production remain the ultimate swing factors.

Series implications and betting insight

This matchup carries weight in both leagues. The Padres are chasing the Dodgers in the NL West and cannot afford extended slumps. The Twins, meanwhile, are trying to stop a freefall that has erased much of their early-season progress. Analysts reviewing the MLB expert betting guide will note how both teams have struggled with consistency, making this series difficult to handicap but fascinating to watch.

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Conclusion

Friday’s series opener between San Diego and Minnesota brings together two teams with postseason ambitions and two hitters looking to define the narrative. For Luis Arraez, returning to the city where his MLB story truly began could be the perfect stage to break his slump. For the Twins, the chance to snap their skid against a playoff contender may help stabilize a season that has veered off course.

At Fenway, Wrigley, or Petco, baseball history often turns on moments like these — a star rediscovering his swing, a young arm finding his footing, or a struggling club catching fire. For both the Padres and Twins, Friday represents opportunity, urgency, and the unpredictable charm of September baseball.