Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes Picks and Predictions September 6th 2025

Iowa State vs Iowa Picks and Predictions September 6th 2025

The annual Cy-Hawk rivalry returns to Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, but there’s one storyline that overshadows all the rest: Iowa State hasn’t beaten Iowa at home since 2011. That’s six straight losses at Jack Trice Stadium, despite a decade-plus of competitive teams and even NFL-level talent like Brock Purdy under center.

Now ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll and off to a red-hot 2-0 start, the Cyclones are hoping quarterback Rocco Becht can finally reverse the home-field curse and give fans in Ames a reason to celebrate.

Iowa, meanwhile, isn’t just playing spoiler—they’re looking to continue a decade of dominance, having won seven of the last nine meetings in the series.

How Each Team Entered Week 3

Iowa State is off to a dream start. After opening the season with a win over then-No. 17 Kansas State in Dublin, they thumped South Dakota 55-7 last week. Becht was lights out, completing 19-of-20 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns—a school-record 95 percent completion rate.

The Cyclones also got a record-breaking 63-yard field goal from kicker Kyle Konrardy, the longest in program history.

Iowa opened with a 34-7 win over Albany, highlighted by the debut of running back Xavier Williams, who rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. The Hawkeyes got decent production on the ground, but quarterback Mark Gronowski struggled through the air, finishing just 8-for-15 for 44 yards.

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Key Team Comparison

Storylines to Watch

It’s been 14 years since Cyclone fans witnessed a home win in this rivalry. Even with solid teams and talented QBs like Brock Purdy, they’ve come up short each time. With Rocco Becht now leading the way, this might be the most complete Iowa State team in years.

Becht has embraced the rivalry, noting how much it means to the fan base and program: “It means a lot to me because I know it means a lot to the fans,” he said this week.

Iowa’s Road Toughness

Quarterback Mark Gronowski, a transfer from South Dakota State, relishes the underdog role and said he’s looking forward to the hostile environment. With a defense-first identity and a strong run game, Iowa doesn’t need flashy stats—they need execution and physicality.

Defense Will Define the Game

Both defenses are coming off dominant performances. Iowa allowed just 44 passing yards last week, while Iowa State gave up only 55 total points through two games. Whichever team wins the turnover battle and controls the line of scrimmage will have the edge.

Final Picks and Prediction

Despite the rivalry pressure, Iowa State seems poised to finally snap the home losing streak. The Cyclones have balance on offense, confidence under center, and a defense that can handle Iowa’s methodical attack.

Iowa’s run game is strong, but Gronowski must prove he can make throws under pressure—something he struggled with in Week 1.

Picks Table

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