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Guardians vs Rays Picks and Predictions — September 4, 2025
The Cleveland Guardians (69-69) and Tampa Bay Rays (70-69) kick off a crucial four-game set at George M. Steinbrenner Field. With both teams sitting just outside the AL wild-card spots, every game down the stretch matters.
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The Rays are riding a six-game winning streak after sweeping the Mariners, while the Guardians snapped a skid with an 8-1 win in Boston.
Want expert-backed plays for tonight’s board? Check out today’s MLB best bets →
Guardians Can Win If…
Their pitching keeps them in it. Cleveland has leaned on its arms all season, ranking 16th in ERA (3.97) and top 10 in limiting home runs. Logan Allen (7-10, 4.42 ERA) has struggled since July, but the Guardians’ bullpen remains capable of shutting teams down late.
Offensively, José Ramírez (.278, 26 HR) is the engine. Steven Kwan’s table-setting (.292 BA) and Gabriel Arias’ recent pop provide much-needed depth for an offense that still ranks near the bottom of MLB in runs scored.
If Cleveland can scratch across early runs and protect a late lead, they’ll have a chance to steal the opener.
Rays Can Win If…
Their hot bats stay alive. Tampa Bay just ripped 19 hits against Seattle, led by Yandy Díaz’s 5-for-5 night and Junior Caminero’s power (40 HR). The Rays rank top 5 in batting average and lead MLB in steals (175), giving them multiple ways to pressure opposing pitchers.
On the mound, Ryan Pepiot (10-10, 3.70 ERA) has been steady, posting a 3.25 ERA in August. His ability to limit base runners (1.15 WHIP) gives Tampa Bay an edge, especially with Cleveland’s offense prone to slumps.
Key MLB Betting Trends
| Category | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-69 (3rd AL Central) | 70-69 (4th AL East) |
| Last 10 Games | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.8 (27th) | 4.6 (13th) |
| Team ERA | 3.97 (16th) | 3.89 (11th) |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 6 |
The Lean
Pick: Rays -147
Projected Score: Rays 5, Guardians 3
Total Lean: Under 8.5 (-102)
Tampa Bay has the edge both at the plate and on the mound right now. Cleveland’s lack of consistent offense makes it tough to back them against a surging Rays squad. With Pepiot and Allen capable of keeping things close, the Under is the sharper total play.
Stay on top of both teams’ momentum shifts by reviewing the most recent MLB game results
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