Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions September 7th 2025

Guardians vs Rays Picks and Predictions — September 7, 2025

The Cleveland Guardians have jumped past the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Wild Card race, and they’ll look to extend that edge in Sunday’s series finale at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Cleveland’s 3-2 win on Saturday secured the season series and put pressure on the Rays, who now trail by a half-game.

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With both teams battling for playoff positioning, every inning carries weight. For more perspective on how these clubs have performed down the stretch, review the latest MLB game results.

Opening odds: Rays -145 (moneyline), Guardians +122, Total 8.0 runs.

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Guardians Can Win If…

Cleveland is counting on rookie lefty Parker Messick (1-0, 2.08 ERA), who’s been impressive in his first three starts, including a seven-inning shutout in his debut against Tampa Bay. Though he stumbled in Boston his last time out, he has shown poise and command.

At the plate, Steven Kwan remains the spark plug. His ninth-inning RBI single Saturday lifted Cleveland to victory, and José Ramírez continues to be the team’s biggest bat with 27 homers and a .283 average.

“My confidence is always huge in Kwany … I’m not surprised to see him come through,” manager Stephen Vogt said.

If Messick keeps the ball on the ground and Kwan sets the tone at the top, the Guardians can finish this series with a statement.

Rays Can Win If…

Tampa Bay turns to ace Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.74 ERA), who hasn’t lost since late June and has been one of the most reliable arms in their rotation. Rasmussen has never beaten Cleveland, but his 0.97 WHIP suggests he can keep hitters off balance.

Offensively, the Rays lean on Junior Caminero (41 HR, 103 RBI) for power and Yandy Díaz (.293) for consistency. Their aggressive baserunning is another weapon—they lead MLB in stolen bases.

“We probably didn’t want to see Kwan coming up in that situation,” manager Kevin Cash said of Saturday’s loss.

If Rasmussen delivers a quality start and the Rays manufacture runs with speed and timely power, they can even the series.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: Rays 5, Guardians 3
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-145)
Total Lean: Under 8.0

Cleveland has momentum, but Rasmussen’s recent form and Tampa Bay’s home-field advantage make the Rays the stronger side. Expect a lower-scoring battle where pitching sets the tone. For more insights and daily breakdowns, check our MLB Betting Predictions hub.

September baseball is here — playoff races are heating up. Explore more expert picks here →