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Tulane vs Duke Picks and Predictions
The Tulane Green Wave welcome the Duke Blue Devils in New Orleans on Saturday night in one of Week 3’s most intriguing storylines. All eyes will be on quarterback Darian Mensah, who transferred from Tulane to Duke in the offseason on one of the biggest NIL deals in college football.+
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Darian Mensah’s Return
Mensah was the face of Tulane’s offense in 2024, throwing for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns. His move to Duke brought national headlines, and through two games with the Blue Devils (1-1), he’s already passed for 723 yards and five touchdowns. Still, turnovers were a problem in last week’s 45-19 loss to Illinois, where Duke committed five giveaways.
Coach Manny Diaz believes the Blue Devils are in a stronger position this season, even after the setback, and emphasized the importance of bouncing back on the road.
Tulane’s Hot Start
The Green Wave (2-0) have opened with wins over Northwestern and South Alabama, including a 33-31 thriller last week. Transfer QB Jake Retzlaff has made an immediate impact, throwing for 277 yards and rushing for 177 more with four total touchdowns.
Coach Jon Sumrall said his team is preparing for Duke, not just Mensah, reminding his players that “it’s Tulane vs. Duke, not Tulane vs. one player.”
Offensive Comparison
Here’s how both teams’ offenses stack up so far this season:
| Team | Passing Yards/Game | Rushing Yards/Game | Points/Game | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane Green Wave | 196.5 | 174.0 | 30.0 | 2 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 361.5 | 124.0 | 32.0 | 6 |
Duke’s passing game with Mensah is already one of the ACC’s most efficient, while Tulane brings more balance between the run and pass.
Defensive Comparison
On the other side of the ball, both defenses will have to step up in a game that could turn into a shootout:
| Team | Yards Allowed/Game | Points Allowed/Game | Takeaways | Sacks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulane Green Wave | 368.0 | 22.5 | 3 | 4 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 412.0 | 32.0 | 2 | 5 |
Tulane’s defense has been more reliable, while Duke has struggled with consistency, especially in the second half against Illinois.
Betting Lean
This matchup has layers: Mensah facing his old team, Tulane’s balanced offense, and Duke’s explosive but turnover-prone attack. Duke leads the all-time series 3-2 and has won the last three meetings, but Tulane enters with momentum and home-field advantage.
My model projects Tulane 28, Duke 27, pointing to value on the Green Wave as a slight underdog. The total also leans toward the over, given both offenses’ ability to generate big plays.
For more betting analysis and odds across the board, check the latest NCAAF odds and expert insights in the college football picks hub.
