NFL Previews 
MLB Previews 
NBA Previews 
NHL Previews 
Soccer Previews 
Prediction 
Odds 
Last Recap 
Game Picks 
Top Handicapper 
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres September 16th 2025
The San Diego Padres will visit the New York Mets at Citi Field for a night game on Tuesday, September 16, 2025. The Padres hold a record of 82-68 and are ranked second in the NL West. They have won their last two games and are 6-4 in their last ten.
Unlock 3000 Premium Picks for $9
Limited Time Deal!
The New York Mets, also ranked second in their division, have a record of 77-73. They won their last game but have struggled recently, going 2-8 in their last ten. The game will air on TBS, and the weather forecast predicts overcast clouds with mild temperatures and a light breeze.
Padres vs Mets Key Information
- Sport: Baseball
- Teams: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
- Venue: Citi Field in New York, NY
- Date: Tuesday, September 16, 2025
- Betting Odds: Padres Moneyline -108, Mets Moneyline -110, Padres Runline -1.5 (+150), Mets Runline +1.5 (-183), Total Over 8.5 (-101), Total Under 8.5 (-120)
The San Diego Padres Can Win If…
The San Diego Padres come into this matchup after a 9-6 victory over the Colorado Rockies. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a standout game with three hits and three runs, while Jackson Merrill added a home run and three RBIs. That kind of balanced production highlights the depth of San Diego’s offense, which has carried them into a strong wild-card position.
The Padres rank 6th in MLB with a .252 team batting average and have been even stronger on the mound. Their pitching staff owns a 3.65 ERA, good for 3rd overall, and opponents are hitting just .225 against them, the lowest mark in the league. That combination of run prevention and timely hitting makes San Diego one of the most complete teams in baseball.
Michael King takes the ball with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. His ability to limit traffic on the bases and generate strikeouts has been a huge factor in the Padres’ success. With Manny Machado and Tatis Jr. anchoring the lineup, San Diego has the offensive star power and pitching edge to take another step toward locking up a playoff berth.
The New York Mets Can Win If…
The New York Mets earned a much-needed 5-2 victory over the Texas Rangers in their last outing. Nolan McLean impressed by tossing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts, while Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo each homered to secure the win. For New York, contributions from both the rotation and lineup will be critical against a well-rounded Padres team.
The Mets’ offensive strength lies in their patience and power. They rank 6th in home runs with 203 and 3rd in walks with 525, helping them post the 5th-best on-base percentage in the league. Alonso remains the centerpiece, while Juan Soto and Nimmo provide strong protection, making the Mets dangerous in any inning.
Clay Holmes gets the start with an 11-8 record and a 3.75 ERA. While he has been inconsistent at times, he has shown the ability to work deep into games. If Holmes can limit damage early and the Mets’ offense capitalizes with runners on base, New York can keep pace with the Padres and potentially pull off the win at home.
The Lean
According to the latest MLB odds, the Padres are slight favorites at -108, while the Mets are listed at -110. With San Diego ranking 3rd in ERA and 1st in batting average against, their pitching staff holds the clear advantage. My model projects a 5-3 Padres win, making San Diego the recommended side on the moneyline.
The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the over at -101 and the under at -120. Given the Padres’ elite pitching metrics and the Mets’ inconsistency at the plate, this projects as a lower-scoring contest. My projection calls for 8 runs, making the under 8.5 the stronger play. For additional betting insights, you can also review the Expert MLB Betting Guide and daily MLB Picks.
Key Betting Trends
| Team | Last 10 Games | Run Line Record | Over/Under Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 5-5 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| New York Mets | 4-6 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
The Padres’ elite pitching has kept totals under in six of their last 10 games, while the Mets’ bullpen struggles have burned bettors on the run line. For a full breakdown of team profiles, check out the MLB Teams page.
Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Stat Highlight |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | 3 hits, 3 runs vs Rockies |
| Manny Machado | Padres | Veteran bat, looking to heat up again |
| Michael King | Padres | 2.87 ERA, 1.07 WHIP |
| Pete Alonso | Mets | 40+ HR power threat |
| Brandon Nimmo | Mets | On-base machine, HR vs Rangers |
| Clay Holmes | Mets | 11-8 record, 3.75 ERA |
Tatis Jr. continues to be San Diego’s engine, while Machado’s bat remains crucial down the stretch. Alonso and Nimmo provide the Mets’ power, but Holmes’ ability to hold the Padres’ lineup in check will be the deciding factor.
Game Preview Recap
The San Diego Padres and New York Mets meet in a series with major wild-card implications. The Padres enter at 82-68, five games ahead of the Mets, who are 77-73. With San Francisco and Arizona lurking just behind, New York must capitalize at home to keep its postseason hopes alive.
Michael King will face Clay Holmes in the opener, though the Mets may also use Sean Manaea in a piggyback role. Both teams had Monday off after important wins — the Mets snapping an eight-game losing streak and the Padres taking a series from Colorado.
San Diego’s lineup produced 20 runs across its last two games despite resting Machado and Luis Arraez. Gavin Sheets stepped up with key hits, while Merrill added power. The Mets, meanwhile, rode Alonso’s walk-off homer to victory, a much-needed morale boost for a club that has blown multiple late leads this season.
With the Padres’ superior pitching and depth, they hold the edge in this matchup. But the Mets’ lineup has the kind of power that can shift a game in a single inning. Bettors should expect a tight, playoff-style battle at Citi Field, with San Diego slightly better positioned to prevail. For further analysis, check the Expert MLB Betting Guide and real-time MLB Scores & Odds.
