Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Predictions September 16th 2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays September 16th 2025

The Toronto Blue Jays will visit the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The game is set for Tuesday, September 16, 2025, at 7:35 PM. Fans can catch the action on FDSSU.

The Blue Jays come into the game with a record of 88-62, holding the top spot in the AL East. They are on a five-game winning streak. The Rays, with a 73-77 record, are fourth in the division and have lost their last two games. The weather forecast predicts a very hot day with calm winds and overcast clouds.

Blue Jays vs Rays Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
• Date: Tuesday, September 16, 2025
• Betting Odds:
  • Blue Jays Moneyline: -107
  • Rays Moneyline: -111
  • Blue Jays Runline: -1.5 (+150)
  • Rays Runline: +1.5 (-183)
  • Total Over: 8.5 (-108)
  • Total Under: 8.5 (-112)

The Toronto Blue Jays Can Win If…

The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a 2-1 extra-inning victory against Tampa Bay. Rookie Trey Yesavage struck out nine across five innings in his debut, while George Springer and Ernie Clement provided the offensive spark. The Jays’ depth and timely hitting continue to push them forward in the AL East race.

Toronto leads MLB in batting average at .269 and on-base percentage at .335. With a lineup that features Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, they consistently generate scoring chances. The Blue Jays’ ability to string together hits and grind out at-bats makes them one of the toughest lineups to pitch against.

José Berríos gets the ball with a 3.99 ERA and plenty of experience against the Rays. While his numbers versus Tampa Bay have been uneven, his ability to limit hard contact and work deep into games provides Toronto a chance to extend their lead in the division. If Berríos commands his pitches and the Jays’ bats stay active, they can notch another win.

The Tampa Bay Rays Can Win If…

The Tampa Bay Rays dropped the opener 2-1 despite a strong start from Joe Boyle and three hits from Yandy Díaz. The problem was timely hitting, as Tampa Bay struck out 18 times, including with the tying run at third in the 11th inning. To bounce back, the Rays need to shorten swings and capitalize on runners in scoring position.

Offensively, the Rays sit 7th in MLB with a .251 average. Junior Caminero continues to power the lineup, blasting 44 homers this season, just three shy of breaking the franchise single-season record. Their aggressive style on the basepaths also pays dividends, leading MLB with 183 stolen bases. If Caminero or Díaz get on base, Tampa Bay has multiple ways to generate runs.

Ryan Pepiot will start with a 3.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s pitched well against Toronto this year, posting a 2.08 ERA in two starts, including a seven-inning shutout performance. If Pepiot repeats that command and keeps the ball in the park, the Rays’ pitching gives them every chance to even the series.

The Lean

According to the latest MLB odds, the Rays are slight -111 favorites, while the Blue Jays are -107. Tampa Bay owns the edge in pitching ERA, ranking 12th compared to Toronto’s 19th. My model projects a 5-4 Rays victory, making Tampa Bay the moneyline play.

The total is set at 8.5 runs. Both teams feature strong lineups — Toronto leads MLB in average and OBP, while Tampa Bay ranks top-10 in doubles and stolen bases. My projection calls for 9 runs total, suggesting value on the over. Bettors should also check MLB Picks and the Expert MLB Betting Guide for additional wagering angles.

Key Betting Trends

The Blue Jays have been hot, winning six of their last seven, while the Rays have dropped six of ten. Totals bettors should note Tampa Bay games have trended over due to inconsistent bullpen work, while Toronto’s dominant pitching has leaned toward unders.

Players to Watch

Guerrero Jr. and Bichette anchor Toronto’s top-ranked lineup, while Yesavage’s debut showed he could be a postseason X-factor. For Tampa Bay, Caminero’s record chase provides motivation, and Díaz’s consistency is critical. Pepiot’s history against Toronto makes him the Rays’ best hope for a bounce-back.

Game Preview Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays continued their September surge with a 2-1 extra-inning win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto now holds a five-game lead in the AL East as they push toward October, while Tampa Bay faces elimination from postseason contention.

Yesavage’s MLB debut drew headlines with nine strikeouts and a record-setting whiff rate. Manager John Schneider praised the rookie’s ability to turn over a lineup multiple times, suggesting Yesavage could be key for Toronto in October.

Berríos will look to deliver a stronger outing against the Rays than in his two May matchups, where he went 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA. Pepiot, on the other hand, has had success against Toronto and returns from fatigue after skipping a start. His ability to replicate past dominance could give Tampa Bay hope.

With Toronto’s lineup firing and Tampa Bay’s offense struggling with strikeouts, the Jays hold the momentum. But Pepiot’s track record ensures this won’t be easy. Fans can track live lines at MLB Scores & Odds and review the Expert MLB Betting Guide for deeper strategy before first pitch.