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Giants vs Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions — September 16, 2025
The NL wild-card race tightens Tuesday night as the San Francisco Giants face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
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Arizona (76-75) jumped past San Francisco (75-75) in the standings with an 8-1 win Monday, extending their winning streak to three while the Giants have dropped three straight.
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Giants Can Win If…
- Rafael Devers leads the offense. He has 31 HR and 102 RBIs this year and is the Giants’ most consistent run producer.
- They stay patient at the plate. San Francisco ranks 7th in walks, which could help wear down Eduardo Rodriguez.
- Their pitching keeps the ball in the yard. The Giants’ staff has allowed the fewest home runs in MLB — crucial against Arizona’s power bats.
Casey Schmitt provided the lone bright spot Monday with a homer. If he and Matt Chapman (8-for-21 lifetime vs. Rodriguez) step up, the Giants can flip the script.
Diamondbacks Can Win If…
- Eduardo Rodriguez repeats last week’s gem. He shut out the Giants for 6 1/3 innings on Sept. 10 and is riding a three-start win streak.
- Their power bats deliver. Arizona ranks 6th in homers (204) and 4th in slugging (.435). Geraldo Perdomo and James McCann combined for four RBIs in Monday’s win.
- Momentum carries over. The D-backs have won 4 of their last 5, outscoring opponents 28-11 during that span.
Manager Torey Lovullo praised Rodriguez’s poise:
“He goes out there and executes. The reason he is having success, for me, is the location of his pitches.”
Key Betting Trends
| Category | Giants | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 75-75 (4th NL West) | 76-75 (3rd NL West) |
| Form (Last 5) | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Runs Scored (Rank) | 640 (20th) | 699 (9th) |
| Team ERA (Rank) | 3.94 (7th) | 4.46 (19th) |
| Last Meeting | ARI 8, SF 1 (Sept. 15, 2025) |
The Leans
Main Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-116)
Projected Score: Diamondbacks 5, Giants 4
- Moneyline Angle: Arizona’s lineup has been hot, and Rodriguez has found rhythm. Giants’ bullpen game is a risk.
- Total Runs Angle: Over 9 (-105). Both teams are in must-win mode and Arizona’s bats have been productive.
Best Bet Box
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-116)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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