Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

Red Sox vs Rays Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025

The Boston Red Sox visit the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday night at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Boston (84-70) is fighting for a wild card spot, tied with Houston entering play, while Tampa Bay (75-79) has officially been eliminated from postseason contention. The Red Sox took Friday’s opener 11-7, powered by a seven-run eighth inning and Ceddanne Rafaela’s first career four-hit game.

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Opening odds:

• Moneyline: Red Sox −107, Rays −111
• Runline: Red Sox −1.5 (+154), Rays +1.5 (−189)
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5 runs

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Red Sox Can Win If…

• Kyle Harrison provides length. The lefty has a 4.05 ERA overall but has struggled as a starter (4.91 ERA). Boston needs him to settle in early.
• The doubles machine keeps churning. Boston leads MLB with 307 doubles, and that gap power has been a constant all season.
• Stars deliver. Trevor Story (25 HR, 94 RBI) and Alex Bregman (.273 AVG, .359 OBP) give Boston the balance of power and patience that fuels late rallies like Friday’s.

“You can have a good offense and defense, but when your special teams fall in line, that’s when you know you have it,” manager Alex Cora said about Boston’s execution.

Rays Can Win If…

• Adrian Houser keeps pitching to contact effectively. The veteran righty has an 8-4 record with a 3.11 ERA, and opponents are batting just .211 against him over his last three outings.
• Speed pressures Boston’s defense. The Rays lead MLB with 186 stolen bases, and Chandler Simpson (42-for-54 on steals, .301 AVG) has been a spark at the top of the lineup.
• The big bats provide protection. Junior Caminero (44 HR, 108 RBI) and Yandy Díaz (.300 AVG, .365 OBP) anchor the middle of the order and give Tampa Bay instant offense potential.

“He knows what he does. He uses his speed — it’s the best speed I’ve ever seen — and uses it to his advantage,” teammate Carson Williams said about Simpson.

Want to see how these teams have fared lately? Check the recent MLB scoreboards

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (−107)
Projected Final Score: Red Sox 5, Rays 4
Total Lean: Over 8.5

Reasoning: Boston has dominated the head-to-head this year (9-2 vs Tampa Bay) and continues to pile up extra-base hits. Houser has been sharp for the Rays, but Boston’s ability to string doubles together and put pressure late should be enough to pull out another tight win. The Rays’ speed will keep it close, but the Red Sox are the sharper side.

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