Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions September 23rd 2025

The Miami Marlins are set to play against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Marlins have been on a winning streak, with a record of 76-80 and a recent run of 9-1 in their last ten games. Managed by Clayton McCullough, the team looks to continue their momentum with Edward Cabrera on the mound, who has a 3.57 ERA and a 7-7 record.

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The Phillies, holding a 92-64 record, lead the NL East division. However, they have lost their last two games. Under the guidance of manager Rob Thomson, the team will rely on Cristopher Sánchez, who has a 2.66 ERA and a 13-5 record, to secure a win. The game will be broadcast on NSPPH, and fans can expect warm weather with broken clouds.

Marlins vs Phillies Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
• Betting Odds:
  • Marlins Moneyline: +181
  • Phillies Moneyline: -216
  • Marlins Runline: +1.5 (-115)
  • Phillies Runline: -1.5 (-104)
  • Total Over: 8.0 (-106)
  • Total Under: 8.0 (-114)

The Marlins Can Win If…

The Miami Marlins come into this matchup riding a six-game winning streak. Their latest victory came against the Texas Rangers, a 4-2 decision highlighted by Eury Pérez, who struck out nine across four innings. This kind of dominance on the mound has been a key factor in their recent surge.

Miami’s offense has been steady, producing a .252 team batting average that ranks 7th in MLB. They also rank 6th in doubles with 267, showing an ability to generate extra-base hits consistently. Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards have carried much of the contact-hitting load, while timely production has been the difference during this streak.

Edward Cabrera takes the ball, carrying a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. His command will be vital, especially against a Philadelphia lineup that thrives on power. If Cabrera can control the strike zone and get early outs, the Marlins have a real shot to extend their hot streak.

The Phillies Can Win If…

The Philadelphia Phillies are eager to rebound after a 9-2 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. While the defeat was lopsided, Alec Bohm went 4-for-4, showing his bat is heating up at just the right time. With Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber surrounding him in the order, the Phillies have the lineup depth to put pressure on any pitcher.

Philadelphia’s hitting metrics stand out, ranking 3rd in batting average at .260 and 3rd in on-base percentage at .329. Schwarber’s 53 home runs are a testament to their raw power, and Harper’s ability to get on base consistently fuels rallies.

Cristopher Sánchez has been one of baseball’s breakout arms, owning a 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Phillies also lead the majors with 81 quality starts, proving their rotation is built for October. With Sánchez’s dominance and the lineup’s power, Philadelphia has all the pieces for a bounce-back victory.

Key Stat Comparison

The Lean

Philadelphia is heavily favored at -216 on the moneyline, with Miami listed at +181. Given the Phillies’ balance of power hitting and strong starting pitching, they are the recommended play. My projection calls for a 5-3 Phillies victory.

The total is set at 8.0 runs. With Cabrera working back into rhythm and Sánchez likely controlling Miami’s bats, runs may be at a premium. The model projects exactly 8 runs, leaning toward the under 8.0 (-110) as the sharper side.

For more market breakdowns, check the latest MLB odds.

Betting Trends

• Marlins are 6-0 in their last six games overall.
• Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
• The under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head matchups.

Daily insights like these can be found on the MLB picks page.

Phillies Chasing a First-Round Bye

Philadelphia enters this series with plenty at stake. At 92-64, they hold a four-game lead over the Dodgers for the second bye in the NL playoffs. Securing that slot would give them critical rest and home-field advantage heading into October.

Manager Rob Thomson has aligned the rotation to get Cristopher Sánchez on the mound in this series and potentially again in the season finale if needed. Sánchez has dominated Miami in his career, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.27 ERA against them.

Marlins Refuse to Fold

Despite slim playoff odds, Miami remains motivated. At 76-80, they’re not mathematically eliminated, and manager Clayton McCullough has emphasized taking care of business one game at a time. Cabrera’s return from elbow soreness provides a boost, though the team will monitor his workload.

The Marlins have leaned on small-ball tactics and clutch pitching to pull off recent wins, including three straight over Texas. Even if postseason hopes fade, their strong finish bodes well for a young roster’s development.

Projected Matchup Recap

Explore more team breakdowns in the MLB expert betting guide.