Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Predictions September 23rd 2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays September 23rd 2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Rays hold a record of 76-80 and are ranked fourth in the AL East. They recently broke a losing streak with a win, but their last 10 games have been a struggle, going 4-6.

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The Orioles, with a record of 73-83, sit at the bottom of the division. They are on a two-game losing streak and have also gone 4-6 in their last 10 games. The weather forecast predicts overcast clouds with a light breeze for this night game, which will be broadcast on MASN.

Rays vs Orioles Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
• Betting Odds: Rays Moneyline -114, Orioles Moneyline -104

The Rays Can Win If…

The Tampa Bay Rays enter this matchup fresh off a 7-3 win over the Boston Red Sox. Joe Boyle was sharp on the mound, striking out nine batters in just over four innings. Brandon Lowe powered the offense with a home run, while Christopher Morel drove in four runs.

Tampa Bay ranks seventh in MLB with a .252 batting average and leads the majors in stolen bases with 188, giving them a unique combination of contact and speed. On the pitching side, the Rays carry a team ERA of 3.85, ranked ninth, while limiting opponents to a .235 batting average, the sixth-best mark in baseball.

Ryan Pepiot will start, bringing an 11-11 record with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Junior Caminero remains the most dangerous hitter in their lineup, posting 44 home runs and 108 RBIs. If Pepiot can keep Baltimore’s hitters quiet, the Rays’ lineup and baserunning could tilt the game in their favor.

The Orioles Can Win If…

The Baltimore Orioles return home after a 7-1 loss to the New York Yankees. Kyle Bradish provided a silver lining, tossing six innings and striking out nine while giving up just one run. Samuel Basallo added a solo home run, showing their offensive potential.

Baltimore has relied heavily on its ability to hit the long ball, ranking 11th in MLB with 182 home runs. Young stars Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson provide the biggest threats, giving the Orioles the ability to score in bunches.

Dean Kremer will get the start, bringing a 10-10 record with a 4.39 ERA. His past success against Tampa Bay gives the Orioles hope that he can control the Rays’ lineup long enough for the bats to break through.

Team Comparison

The Lean

Oddsmakers list the Rays as slight favorites at -114, with the Orioles close behind at -104. My projection favors Tampa Bay in a 5-4 victory, given their superior team ERA and batting average against.

The total is set at 9.0 runs. The model projects exactly 9 runs, which makes the over a playable option, especially with both bullpens struggling at times in September.

For more updated numbers, check the latest MLB odds.

Betting Trends

• Rays are 4-1 in their last five road games.
• Orioles are 2-7 in their last nine home contests.
• The over has hit in six of Tampa Bay’s last eight games.

More breakdowns can be found on the MLB picks page.

Rays Playing Spoiler Role

The Rays may be out of the playoff picture, but they’re still capable of causing problems for their AL East rivals. Brandon Lowe continues to provide power, recently reaching the 30-home-run mark for the second time in his career. Manager Kevin Cash praised the group for staying competitive despite tough circumstances and a season that started with their stadium damaged by a hurricane.

Ryan Pepiot will be key here. While he struggled in his last start against Toronto, he previously dominated Baltimore with 11 strikeouts over eight innings. Replicating that outing would give Tampa Bay the upper hand.

Orioles Focus on Youth Development

For Baltimore, the remainder of the season is about evaluating young talent. Corner infielder Coby Mayo has shown flashes, while Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday continue to develop into long-term core pieces. Manager Tony Mansolino has emphasized growth, even in a losing season.

Dean Kremer has pitched well against Tampa Bay, winning twice against them earlier this year. With Adley Rutschman returning from the injured list, the Orioles’ lineup regains a key piece for these final games.

Probable Pitching Matchup

Dive deeper with the full MLB betting guide.