Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions September 23rd 2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers September 23rd 2025

The Detroit Tigers are set to play against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. The Tigers have an 85-71 record and are ranked first in the AL Central. However, they are on a six-game losing streak, with only one win in their last ten games.

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The Cleveland Guardians, with an 84-72 record, hold the second spot in the AL Central. They have been strong recently, winning nine of their last ten games. The game will feature starting pitchers Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Gavin Williams for the Guardians.

Tigers vs Guardians Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
• Venue: Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH
• Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
• Betting Odds: Tigers Moneyline -157, Guardians Moneyline +133, Tigers Runline -1.5 (+119), Guardians Runline +1.5 (-142), Total Over 6.5 (-114), Total Under 6.5 (-106)

The Tigers Can Win If…

The Detroit Tigers enter this matchup after a 6-2 loss to the Braves, but their bats showed life with 11 hits. Dillon Dingler stood out by going 3-for-4, giving a much-needed spark to the offense. Detroit’s ability to produce base runners against strong pitching remains a key weapon.

Power has been the Tigers’ identity this season. They rank 9th in MLB with 193 home runs, led by Spencer Torkelson’s 31. With Gleyber Torres and Zach McKinstry providing balance in the lineup, Detroit has the depth to generate scoring opportunities throughout the order.

Ace Tarik Skubal gets the start, boasting a 13-5 record with a 2.23 ERA. He has been nearly unhittable against Cleveland this season, posting 32 strikeouts and only two walks in 22 innings. If Skubal commands his fastball early, the Tigers are in prime position to dictate the game.

The Guardians Can Win If…

The Cleveland Guardians dropped their last game 6-2 to the Twins, but Steven Kwan’s home run and Joey Cantillo’s 5-strikeout outing provided positives. Cleveland has thrived by combining small ball with timely power, and that style can be effective in a playoff-type atmosphere.

Pitching is the foundation of their success. With a 3.71 ERA, ranked 4th in MLB, Cleveland has been able to lean on its rotation and bullpen all season. Gavin Williams, who brings an ERA of 3.06, gets the start and has been dominant against Detroit, pitching 11 scoreless innings across two starts this year.

Offensively, José Ramírez is the centerpiece. With 30 homers and a .282 batting average, he has consistently sparked the Guardians’ lineup. When paired with Kwan’s on-base skills and the club’s ability to steal bases, Cleveland can create pressure even in low-scoring contests.

Quick Stat Snapshot

The Lean

The Tigers enter favored at -157 on the moneyline. With Skubal’s history against Cleveland and Detroit’s power numbers, they hold a slight edge. My model projects a Tigers win, 4-3, making Detroit the recommended side.

The total is set at 6.5 runs. Both Skubal and Williams are elite, but their offenses can break through late. With the model projecting 7 runs, the best value play is on the over 6.5 (-110).

Betting Trends

• Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.
• Guardians are 10-1 in their last 11 games.
• The under is 7-3 in Detroit’s last 10 divisional games.

For more daily breakdowns, visit the MLB picks page.

Division on the Line

This three-game set will likely decide the AL Central. Detroit sits one game up on Cleveland with six games remaining, but the Guardians own the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means even one win in this series ensures Cleveland controls its destiny.

For the Tigers, the task is simple: they must rely on their ace. Skubal has owned Cleveland this season, and another quality start could put Detroit on the doorstep of clinching its first division crown since 2014.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Tarik Skubal vs José Ramírez: A battle of Cy Young stuff against MVP-caliber hitting.
• Gavin Williams vs Spencer Torkelson: Williams has dominated the Tigers, but Torkelson’s power bat could change momentum.
• Detroit’s bullpen vs Cleveland’s speed: The Guardians rank 10th in steals, so the late innings could tilt the outcome.

Final Projection Table

For live updates on odds and lines, check the MLB odds page.