Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions September 23rd 2025

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets September 23rd 2025

The New York Mets are set to play the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Mets have a record of 80-76 and are ranked second in the NL East. They have lost their last two games and are 4-6 in their last ten. The Mets will rely on David Peterson, who holds a 3.98 ERA, to start on the mound.

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The Cubs, with a record of 88-68, also sit second in their division, the NL Central. They have dropped their last four games and are 5-5 over their last ten. Cade Horton, with an impressive 2.66 ERA, will start for the Cubs. The game will be played under moderate rain with a light breeze, starting at 7:40 PM on MARQ.

Mets vs Cubs Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
• Venue: Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
• Betting Odds: Mets Moneyline +101, Cubs Moneyline -119

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets enter this matchup looking to rebound after a narrow 3-2 loss to the Nationals. Francisco Lindor homered and Luis Torrens added a double, showing the Mets’ offense still produces extra-base hits even in low-scoring games.

Statistically, the Mets’ offense is among the best in the majors. They rank 5th in home runs (215) and 5th in on-base percentage (.327). Pete Alonso and Juan Soto continue to lead the charge, combining for 79 home runs. Their ability to change a game with one swing makes the Mets dangerous against any pitching staff.

David Peterson will start for New York, carrying a 3.98 ERA. While he’s had struggles in September, the Mets’ pitching overall has allowed the second-fewest home runs in the league. That plays directly into neutralizing Chicago’s power-driven offense. If Peterson keeps the ball in the park, New York’s hitters can carry them to a win.

Quick Team Snapshot

The Cubs Can Win If…

The Chicago Cubs are also trying to bounce back, following a 1-0 loss to Cincinnati. Jameson Taillon threw seven excellent innings, allowing just one run, but the offense couldn’t capitalize on six hits.

The Cubs’ lineup has been strong all season. They rank 7th in home runs (209) and 8th in slugging percentage (.426). Michael Busch leads the team with 30 home runs, while Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong have provided consistent support. Their mix of power and situational hitting makes them a threat against left-handed pitchers like Peterson.

On the mound, rookie Cade Horton takes the ball. His 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP have been stellar, and he’s compiled an 11-4 record. Horton’s dominance has given Chicago confidence heading into each of his starts. If he can replicate his recent form, the Cubs’ pitching edge could tilt this matchup in their favor.

The Lean

The Cubs are favored at -119 on the moneyline, while the Mets sit at +101. My projection leans toward Chicago, with the Cubs winning 5-4. Their slightly stronger pitching staff and consistent home power production provide an edge.

The total is set at 7.5 runs, with over at -106 and under at -114. Given the offensive power on both sides and the Mets’ vulnerability in late innings, the over appears attractive. My model calls for a combined score of 9 runs, suggesting value on the over 7.5.

Betting Trends

• Mets are 4-10 in their last 14 games.
• Cubs are 6-2 in their last 8 at home.
• Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 Mets road games.

For a full look at betting opportunities, check the MLB picks page.

Matchup Preview

The Mets’ playoff hopes are slipping after losing 11 of their last 15. They now find themselves trailing Cincinnati in the wild-card chase due to tiebreakers. Francisco Lindor continues to anchor the lineup, but consistency has been an issue since mid-June.

The Cubs, meanwhile, are trying to secure the top wild-card spot. While their NL Central chances are gone, home-field advantage for the wild-card series remains within reach. Rookie sensation Cade Horton has been the steady force in their rotation, giving them confidence against New York.

For updated spreads and totals, check the MLB odds board.

Key Players to Watch

• Pete Alonso, Mets: 37 HRs and 102 RBIs.
• Juan Soto, Mets: 42 HRs, .401 OBP.
• Michael Busch, Cubs: 30 HRs.
• Cade Horton, Cubs: 11-4, 2.66 ERA.

Alonso and Soto provide the Mets’ power threat, while Horton will be tested by their ability to work deep counts and punish mistakes. For Chicago, Busch’s power bat could be a difference-maker in tight spots.

Final Projection Table

For deeper analysis, consult the expert MLB betting guide.