Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions September 26th 2025

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers September 26th 2025

The Detroit Tigers will visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Friday, September 26, 2025. The game is set to begin at 7:10 PM under overcast skies and a light breeze. Fans can catch the action on APLTV.

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The Tigers, led by manager A.J. Hinch, hold a record of 86-73. They are ranked second in the AL Central division and recently snapped a losing streak with a win. The Red Sox, managed by Alex Cora, have a record of 87-72 and are third in the AL East. They are coming off a loss but have performed well in their last ten games.

Tigers vs Red Sox Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
• Venue: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
• Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
• Betting Odds: Tigers Moneyline +102, Red Sox Moneyline -121

The Tigers Can Win If…

The Detroit Tigers are coming off a strong 4-2 win against the Cleveland Guardians. In that game, the Tigers hit three home runs, showcasing their power. Key players like Wenceel Pérez, Riley Greene, and Jahmai Jones each hit a home run, contributing to the team’s success.

Detroit’s offensive stats show they can be a threat. They rank 9th in home runs with 197 this season. Their batting average is .247, which ranks 9th in the league, indicating they can consistently get on base and score runs.

The Tigers’ starting pitcher, Casey Mize, has been reliable with a 3.91 ERA and a 14-6 record. His ability to limit runs gives the Tigers a good chance to win. With solid performances from their key hitters and a strong starting pitcher, the Tigers have the tools to secure another win.

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are looking to bounce back after a 6-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. In that game, Brayan Bello pitched five innings, allowing three hits and two earned runs. Despite the loss, Jarren Duran and Trevor Story each contributed with a hit, showing their potential to lead the offense.

Boston’s batting lineup is strong, ranking third in batting average at .254. They lead the league in doubles with 317, which indicates their ability to get runners in scoring position. Trevor Story, with 25 home runs and 96 RBIs, is a key player who can make a difference in the game.

On the mound, Kyle Harrison will start for the Red Sox. He has a solid ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.19, showing his capability to keep the game under control. With Boston’s pitching ranked fifth in ERA, they have the tools to limit the opposing team’s scoring opportunities.

The Lean

The Red Sox are favored with a moneyline of -121. The Tigers have a moneyline of +102. Based on the data, the Red Sox have a stronger batting average and a better ERA. My model projects the Red Sox to win with a score of 5-4. Therefore, the pick is the Red Sox on the moneyline.

The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Red Sox and Tigers both have solid hitting stats, and the pitching stats suggest some runs will be scored. My model projects a total score of 9 runs. Therefore, the pick is to bet on the over 8.5 runs.

Tigers vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox (87-72) return home needing one win to clinch their first postseason berth since 2021. Their magic number is one after dropping Thursday’s finale to Toronto. Detroit (86-73) snapped an eight-game skid with a 4-2 win over Cleveland, keeping them tied atop the AL Central. For a full roster breakdown, see the Boston Red Sox team page.

The Tigers had blown a double-digit division lead earlier in September but finally stopped the slide with a power surge. Riley Greene’s 36th homer led the way in a much-needed win. More updates are available on the Detroit Tigers team page.

Line Movement and Odds

Boston opened around -140 with Kyle Harrison on the mound. The total sits at 8.5 runs. Public bettors are siding with the Red Sox to clinch at home, while sharp splits have leaned Tigers with Casey Mize’s steadiness in September. For real-time markets, see the MLB odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Red Sox: Harrison (1-1, 3.58 ERA) impressed in his first Boston start, firing six innings of one-run ball vs Tampa Bay. The 23-year-old lefty has shown command with his fastball and composure beyond his experience. Jarren Duran and Trevor Story provide offensive spark, with Story chasing his first 100-RBI season since 2018.

Tigers: Mize (14-6, 3.91 ERA) has been consistent down the stretch, giving up no more than three runs in each of his last four starts. He’s fanned at least eight twice this month and has 14 such outings on the season. Detroit’s offense finally woke up Thursday with three early homers, a good sign after a week-long drought.

Compare these clubs on the MLB teams page.

Injuries and Conditions

• Red Sox: No major new injuries. Bullpen rested after Thursday’s short outing.
• Tigers: Lineup healthy, relief corps leaned on heavily after rookie Troy Melton’s short start Thursday.

Weather: Clear, cool Fenway night with winds blowing out slightly to right. Could aid left-handed hitters.

Best Bets and Prediction

Boston has momentum at Fenway and Harrison showed poise in his first start. Mize’s steady floor makes the Tigers live, but Detroit’s September collapse is hard to overlook.

Projected score: Red Sox 5, Tigers 4
Best Bet: Red Sox moneyline -140
Lean: Over 8.5 runs (Fenway conditions, both lineups capable of homers)

Explore more angles in the MLB picks section and refine your betting approach with the MLB expert betting guide.