Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Picks and Predictions September 26th 2025

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets September 26th 2025

The New York Mets take on the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. The Mets hold a record of 82-77 and sit in second place in the NL East. They come into this game with a recent win and a 6-4 record in their last ten games.

Get Daily Expert Insights on 10+ Sports

One Plan, Total Coverage

Get Free Trial

The Marlins have a record of 77-82 and are in third place in the NL East. They are looking to snap a two-game losing streak but have been strong recently with a 7-3 record in their last ten games. The game will be played under scattered clouds with a light breeze, but the retractable roof might limit any weather impact.

Mets vs Marlins Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
• Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, FL
• Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
• Betting Odds: Mets Moneyline -131, Marlins Moneyline +111, Mets Runline -1.5 (+130), Marlins Runline +1.5 (-155), Total Over 8.5 (-103), Total Under 8.5 (-118)

The Mets Can Win If…

The New York Mets recently won 8-5 against the Chicago Cubs. Nolan McLean pitched 5 1/3 innings, striking out 11 batters. Brett Baty and Francisco Lindor were key hitters, both contributing home runs to the win.

The Mets have strong hitting stats this season. They rank 4th in home runs with 222 and 5th in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. These stats show their ability to score runs and make big plays.

Brandon Sproat will start for the Mets with an ERA of 3.94. The Marlins’ starter, Sandy Alcantara, has an ERA of 5.48, which could give the Mets an edge. The Mets’ lineup, featuring Pete Alonso and Juan Soto, can capitalize on this pitching matchup.

The Marlins Can Win If…

The Miami Marlins are coming off a narrow 1-0 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. Janson Junk pitched 4 2/3 innings, giving up just one run. Troy Johnston was a bright spot, going 2 for 4 at the plate.

Miami’s batting average of .251 ranks 6th in the league, showing their ability to make contact. Their lineup includes Otto Lopez, who has 77 RBIs, and Agustín Ramírez, who leads the team with 21 home runs. The Marlins also rank 6th in doubles, making them a threat to get runners in scoring position.

Sandy Alcantara will start for the Marlins, looking to improve his record of 10-12. He has the potential to control the game despite his 5.48 ERA. With the team’s strong batting stats, Miami has a good chance to win against the New York Mets.

The Lean

The Mets have a moneyline of -131, while the Marlins are at +111. The Mets have a stronger hitting lineup, ranking 5th in slugging percentage and home runs. The Marlins rank lower in these areas. My model projects a score of Mets 5, Marlins 4. I recommend a straight-up pick on the Mets to win.

The total for the game is set at 8.5. The Mets’ pitching has a better ERA than the Marlins, but both teams have given up many home runs. My model projects a total score of 9 runs. I recommend taking the over at 8.5 (-103) for this game.

Mets vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview

The New York Mets (82-77) open a must-win series Friday in Miami against the Marlins (77-82). New York holds a one-game lead over the Reds for the final NL wild-card berth, but Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker. Arizona is two back, making the Mets’ margin razor-thin. For complete team data, see the New York Mets team page.

Miami has already been eliminated but will try to play spoiler behind Sandy Alcantara. The right-hander has dominated New York in the past and looks to finish strong after missing 2023. More details are on the Miami Marlins team page.

Line Movement and Odds

The Mets opened as slight -115 road favorites with totals set at 8 runs. Public money has backed New York given the playoff stakes, but sharper bettors have been active on Miami, citing Alcantara’s history against the Mets. For current markets, check the MLB odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Mets: Rookie Brandon Sproat (0-1, 3.94 ERA) makes his fourth big-league start. He’s shown flashes with a 98 mph fastball and quality changeup but struggled in his last outing, giving up four runs to Washington. New York’s offense must support him early to avoid bullpen overuse.

Marlins: Alcantara (10-12, 5.48 ERA) has struggled overall but owns a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Mets this season. Lifetime, he’s 5-5 with a 2.98 ERA against them. Miami has quietly gone 11-3 over its last 14 games, including seven wins in the past nine.

The season series is tied 5-5, with Miami taking three of four in the last meeting at Citi Field.

Injuries and Conditions

• Mets: Lineup healthy, relying on Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor for production.
• Marlins: No major new injuries. Roster focused on developing young arms.

Weather: Indoor conditions at loanDepot Park remove variables from totals.

Best Bets and Prediction

The Mets’ urgency is obvious, but Alcantara’s dominance against New York is hard to ignore. Sproat’s inexperience in a playoff-level atmosphere makes Miami a live dog.

Projected score: Marlins 4, Mets 2
Best Bet: Marlins moneyline +105
Lean: Under 8 runs (Alcantara’s splits at home)

For more betting edges, explore the MLB picks section and sharpen your angles with the MLB expert betting guide