Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins Picks and Predictions September 26th 2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins September 26th 2025

The Minnesota Twins will visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Friday, September 26, 2025. The game starts at 6:45 PM and will be shown on MNNT. The weather forecast predicts a warm day with a light breeze and scattered clouds.

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The Twins, managed by Rocco Baldelli, have a record of 69-90 and rank fourth in the AL Central. They are coming off a win, but have struggled in their last ten games, going 4-6. The Phillies, led by Rob Thomson, hold a record of 94-65 and are first in the NL East. They have won their last two games and are 5-5 in their last ten games.

Twins vs Phillies Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
• Betting Odds: Twins Moneyline +142, Phillies Moneyline -170, Twins Runline +1.5 (-147), Phillies Runline -1.5 (+122), Total Over 8.5 (-118), Total Under 8.5 (-104)

The Twins Can Win If…

The Minnesota Twins are coming off a strong 4-0 win against the Texas Rangers. In that game, Byron Buxton led the way with two home runs and four RBIs. Starting pitcher Bailey Ober threw six scoreless innings, allowing only two hits and striking out five.

The Twins have shown power at the plate this season with 187 home runs, ranking 10th in the league. Byron Buxton is a key player with a .265 average and 34 home runs. Their ability to hit long balls gives them a solid chance to score runs against any opponent.

Joe Ryan will start for the Twins with a solid ERA of 3.47. His WHIP of 1.04 is impressive and indicates he can limit base runners. With the Phillies’ Aaron Nola having an ERA of 6.46, the Twins have a good opportunity to capitalize and secure a win.

The Phillies Can Win If…

The Philadelphia Phillies enter their next game after a tight 1-0 win against the Miami Marlins. Walker Buehler pitched five scoreless innings, allowing only three hits. Alec Bohm drove in the game’s only run, going 2-for-4 at the plate.

The Phillies have shown strong hitting throughout the season. They rank second in batting average at .260 and third in slugging percentage at .434. With Kyle Schwarber leading the team with 56 home runs, the Phillies have the power to score runs quickly.

Philadelphia also boasts a solid pitching staff with the most quality starts in the league. Aaron Nola, despite a challenging season, can still deliver effective outings. The Phillies’ ability to strike out batters, ranking third in the league, gives them a strong chance to control the game against the Minnesota Twins.

The Lean

The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -170, and they have a strong hitting lineup with a .260 batting average, ranking 2nd in the league. Their pitching is solid too, with a 3.82 ERA, ranking 8th. The model projects the Phillies to win with a score of 5-3, making them the recommended pick to win the game.

The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Phillies’ strong offense and the Twins’ pitching struggles, with a 4.62 ERA, suggest a higher-scoring game. The model projects a combined score of 8 runs, so the recommendation is to take the under at 8.5 (-104).

Phillies vs Twins MLB Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) open their final series at Citizens Bank Park on Friday against the Minnesota Twins (69-90). Philadelphia trails the Brewers by two games for the NL’s top seed with three left to play. The Brewers own the tiebreaker, so the Phillies need help to overtake them. For roster and season stats, see the Philadelphia Phillies team page.

Minnesota, already eliminated from contention, will look to spoil behind Joe Ryan. The Twins’ season has been disappointing, but Byron Buxton’s two-homer game Thursday showcased his MVP-caliber year. More details are on the Minnesota Twins team page.

Line Movement and Odds

Philadelphia opened around -160 with Aaron Nola on the mound. Totals sit at 8.5 runs. Public action has leaned toward the Phillies given their playoff stakes, though sharper bettors have been cautious given Nola’s uneven September. For real-time numbers, check the MLB odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Phillies: Nola (4-10, 6.46 ERA) has labored since returning from rib and ankle injuries. He’s walked multiple hitters in four of his past five starts. Lifetime against Minnesota, he’s 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA, though most damage came back in 2016. Jhoan Duran, acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline, has been sharp with a 2.29 ERA and 15 saves in Philadelphia.

Twins: Ryan (13-9, 3.47 ERA) is chasing a career-high in wins but has allowed 11 earned runs across his last 11 innings. Buxton leads the offense with 34 home runs, a career best. Despite their struggles, the Twins snapped a skid with a 4-0 win Thursday, and their bats remain dangerous in small bursts.

For full matchups and team breakdowns, see the MLB teams page.

Injuries and Conditions

• Phillies: Nola still building back from mid-season absences. Walker Buehler looks sharp after Thursday’s five-inning gem.
• Twins: Healthy roster, leaning heavily on Buxton’s power down the stretch.

Weather: Clear skies, mild temps in Philadelphia. Conditions should not impact totals.

Best Bets and Prediction

The Phillies have everything to play for, but Nola’s shaky form limits confidence. Ryan’s slump makes Minnesota vulnerable as well. Expect a close game early before Philadelphia’s bullpen steadies things.

Projected score: Phillies 5, Twins 4
Best Bet: Phillies moneyline -160
Lean: Over 8.5 runs with both starters struggling late in the season

For more edges, check daily updates in the MLB picks section and refine your strategy with the MLB expert betting guide.