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Texas A&M Aggies vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Preview
Two SEC teams with different momentum trends square off in College Station. Undefeated No. 6 Texas A&M is riding its best start since 2016, while Mississippi State looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season. Both teams bring strengths — and flaws — that will determine who controls this primetime showdown at Kyle Field.
Line Movement and Odds
Week 6 of the 2025 college football season features Mississippi State traveling to face No. 6 Texas A&M on Saturday, October 4 at 7:30 PM ET, live on SECN.
The Aggies opened as −13.5 favorites, but the line has pushed to −14.0 with steady support from bettors. The total has remained stable around 55.5, reflecting expectations of a moderately high-scoring SEC battle.
Current odds:
- Moneyline: Texas A&M −602 / Mississippi State +435
- Spread: Texas A&M −14.0 (−112) / Mississippi State +14.0 (−108)
- Total: Over 55.5 (−109) / Under 55.5 (−111)
Monitor real-time market movement on the NCAAF scores and odds board.
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Matchup Breakdown
Texas A&M is 4-0 and coming off a grind-it-out 16-10 win against Auburn. The Aggies’ defense dominated, allowing just 177 total yards and stopping Auburn on all 13 third-down attempts. Running back Le’Veon Moss carried the offense with 139 rushing yards and a touchdown, giving balance to quarterback Marcel Reed’s passing attack.
Mississippi State enters 4-1 after an overtime loss to Tennessee, 41-34. The Bulldogs showed resilience, rushing for 198 yards behind Fluff Bothwell, who recorded his second straight 100-yard game. Quarterback Blake Shapen added balance, though the offense leaned heavily on the ground game.
The Aggies’ discipline — or lack thereof — could decide this game. Texas A&M has committed 13 penalties in each of its last two outings, a vulnerability Mississippi State will try to exploit. For full team breakdowns, see the NCAAF teams page.
Injuries and Conditions
Texas A&M
- CB Jaydon Harris remains questionable with a hamstring injury.
- WR Micah Tease expected back after missing last week.
- Overall, Aggies enter Week 6 with strong depth on both lines.
Mississippi State
- No major new injuries reported after the Tennessee game.
- WR Jordan Mosley (ankle) questionable, could affect passing options.
- Secondary depth is slightly thin, but starters remain intact.
Weather in College Station projects clear skies, low 70s, and light wind — perfect conditions for a balanced offensive game plan.
Best Bets and Prediction
Texas A&M’s defense has been elite, ranking 7th nationally in sacks (14) and shutting down Auburn entirely last week. Mississippi State has been efficient on offense but may struggle sustaining drives against the Aggies’ front seven.
- Spread lean: Mississippi State +14.0 — Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and 5-0 ATS in their last five on the road.
- Total lean: Under 55.5 — both defenses have held opponents under 100 points combined this season.
- Projected Final: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 21.
Check the expert betting guide for expanded SEC betting strategies.
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Handicappers and Service Plays
Texas A&M has been a moneyline powerhouse but inconsistent against the spread, while Mississippi State continues to reward backers in road underdog spots. Consensus service plays lean toward the Bulldogs to cover, though the Aggies remain the outright pick at home.
Compare top-performing cappers and verified service records on the college football picks page and track performance on the best handicappers leaderboard before finalizing wagers.
