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No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide vs No. 16 Vanderbilt Commodores Game Preview
A year after pulling off one of the biggest upsets in program history, Vanderbilt returns to Tuscaloosa with belief that it can shock Alabama again. Quarterback Diego Pavia led the Commodores past the then-No. 1 Crimson Tide in 2024, and now both teams enter ranked and eyeing SEC supremacy.
Line Movement and Odds
Week 6 of the 2025 college football season delivers a marquee SEC matchup as No. 16 Vanderbilt (5-0, 1-0 SEC) visits No. 10 Alabama (3-1, 1-0 SEC) on Saturday, October 4 at 3:30 PM ET. The game will be televised nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened Alabama as a −9.5 favorite, and early money has pushed the line to −10.0. The total opened at 58.0 and has held steady, with bettors expecting another high-scoring contest after last year’s 40-35 shootout.
Current odds:
- Moneyline: Alabama −365 / Vanderbilt +285
- Spread: Alabama −10.0 (−110) / Vanderbilt +10.0 (−110)
- Total: Over 58.0 (−110) / Under 58.0 (−110)
Track the latest shifts on the NCAAF scores and odds board.
Matchup Breakdown
Vanderbilt is 5-0 for the first time since 2008 and riding high after a 55-35 win over Utah State. QB Diego Pavia tied a school record with five touchdown passes and has thrown for 1,211 yards and 13 TDs this season, while adding 294 rushing yards. The Commodores’ offensive tempo and third-down efficiency were key to last year’s upset, when they held the ball for over 42 minutes against Alabama.
Alabama is 3-1 and rebounding from an early-season stumble. The Crimson Tide have won three straight, including a 24-21 victory at then-No. 5 Georgia. QB Ty Simpson has been highly efficient, completing 69.3% of his passes for 1,138 yards, 11 TDs, and no interceptions. The Tide defense, while improved since the Vanderbilt loss, remains vulnerable against sustained drives.
The winner gains key positioning in the SEC West and momentum heading into the heart of October. For a full team breakdown, visit the NCAAF teams page.
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Injuries and Conditions
Alabama
- WR Isaiah Bond (ankle) questionable but trending toward playing.
- OL Tyler Booker (shoulder) probable.
- Secondary depth thin after earlier-season injuries, though starters remain intact.
Vanderbilt
- RB Patrick Smith (hamstring) remains questionable.
- WR London Humphreys expected back after missing the Utah State game.
- No new major defensive injuries reported.
Conditions in Tuscaloosa call for mid-80s temperatures, humid with light winds. Heat could test depth in the second half.
Best Bets and Prediction
This rematch brings plenty of intrigue: Vanderbilt’s pass-heavy tempo against Alabama’s maturing defense, and Pavia versus Simpson in a battle of two efficient quarterbacks.
- Spread lean: Vanderbilt +10.0 — the Commodores’ offense has proven it can score on Alabama, and their tempo could shorten possessions enough to stay within the number.
- Total lean: Over 58.0 — both teams are averaging over 35 points per game, and last year’s meeting hit 75 combined.
- Projected Final: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 28.
Find deeper wagering insights in the expert betting guide.
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Handicappers and Service Plays
Alabama is 2-2 ATS this season, while Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS and thriving in the underdog role. Consensus service plays are split: some back the Tide at home, while others lean to Vanderbilt as a live dog.
Check verified expert records and compare service plays on the college football picks page and the best handicappers leaderboard before locking in wagers.
