Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Picks and Predictions October 2nd 2025

Guardians vs Tigers AL Wild Card Game 3 Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers face off in a decisive Game 3 of their AL Wild Card series Thursday at Progressive Field. The series is tied 1-1 after Tarik Skubal struck out 14 in Detroit’s Game 1 win, only for Cleveland to answer with a 6-1 victory behind Brayan Rocchio’s clutch homer in Game 2. The winner heads to Seattle for the ALDS.

Cleveland turns to right-hander Slade Cecconi (7-7, 4.30 ERA), who boldly predicted midseason that the Guardians would overcome their slump and make the playoffs. Detroit counters with veteran Jack Flaherty (8-15, 4.64 ERA), looking to lean on his postseason experience. First pitch is set for 3:08 PM ET on ABC. Fans can also follow postseason form on the baseball game results.

Opening odds: Guardians -116, Tigers -102, with a low total of 7 runs.

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Line Movement and Odds

• Opening line: Guardians -116, Tigers -102, Total 7.0
• Current line: Steady market, Guardians remain slight favorites.
• Runline: Guardians -1.5 (+165), Tigers +1.5 (-200)
• Total: 7 runs (Over -107 / Under -113)

The betting market is split down the middle. Sharps are siding with Cleveland’s home edge and bullpen depth, while the public leans Detroit with ace Tarik Skubal lurking for possible relief duty.

Notable trends:
• Guardians 4th in team ERA (3.70).
• Tigers rank top 10 in batting average (.247) and slugging (.413).
• Flaherty has a 2.51 career ERA against Cleveland.
• Cecconi has allowed 2 runs or fewer in both career starts vs. Detroit.

Matchup Breakdown

Tigers Outlook
Detroit’s offense has been inconsistent, but stars Spencer Torkelson (31 HR) and Riley Greene (36 HR, 111 RBIs) can swing the series with one swing. The Tigers finished strong at the plate, ranking 9th in batting average. Their bullpen has been steady, but the offense needs early runs to avoid a late-inning Guardians surge. Flaherty’s history vs. Cleveland gives them a shot if he keeps the ball in the park.

Guardians Outlook
Cleveland’s strength is pitching depth. With Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams already logging strong starts, Cecconi slots in as a capable No. 3. José Ramírez anchors the lineup with 30 HR and a .283 average, while Rocchio and Josh Naylor provide timely power. The Guardians’ path is simple: ride pitching, limit homers, and let their lineup grind out at-bats.

Key Battle: Cecconi vs. Tigers’ middle order
Cecconi must contain Greene and Torkelson. If he keeps them in check, Cleveland’s bullpen can lock down the late innings. If Detroit’s stars break through, the Guardians may not have enough offense to match.

Injuries and Conditions

Weather: Overcast skies, light breeze. Slightly pitcher-friendly at Progressive Field.

Best Bets and Prediction

This is a true toss-up. Cleveland has the stronger bullpen and home field, while Detroit has the better lineup upside. In a low-total game, pitching depth is the difference.

• Pick: Guardians moneyline -116
• Projected score: Guardians 4, Tigers 3
• Reasoning: Cecconi steadies early, bullpen holds. Ramírez delivers a clutch RBI late.
• Secondary lean: Under 7.0 — both starters project to keep it close into the 6th inning.

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Handicappers and Picks

Game 3 pressure makes every pitch matter. That’s where SAS handicappers come in. Our Leaderboard shows which cappers are winning across MLB and other sports so you can follow real streaks. For playoff specialists, see our Service Plays and get in-depth analysis on sides, totals, and props. We also provide Free MLB Picks daily, giving you actionable advice without cost. And if you want to sharpen your long-term betting approach, check the Bettors Handbook for pro-level bankroll strategies. ScoresAndStats is your playoff advantage from the first pitch to the World Series.