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Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview
The Ottawa Senators open their 2025-26 campaign on the road Thursday night against the Tampa Bay Lightning, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM ET at Benchmark International Arena. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN+. Ottawa broke its eight-year playoff drought last spring and looks to take another step forward under head coach Travis Green. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, begins another season as a proven power, headlined by superstar Nikita Kucherov and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
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The Lightning are listed as -169 favorites on the moneyline, with the Senators priced at +141. The total sits at 6.0 goals (Over -115 / Under -107).
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Line Movement and Odds
Tampa Bay opened around -160 and climbed slightly to -169 as betting support poured in for the home side. Roughly 64% of moneyline wagers are on the Lightning, while sharp money leans on the over following Tampa Bay’s high-tempo preseason slate. Ottawa, a live underdog at +141, has drawn modest action after closing last season with a 45-30-7 record and its first playoff appearance since 2017.
The total remains steady at 6.0 goals, with bettors expecting offense from two of the league’s deeper forward groups.
“Once you get in the playoffs, you want to be back there every year,” said Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot. “We went through that process and know what it takes to play on that stage.”
Matchup Breakdown
Ottawa Senators Outlook
Ottawa enters 2025-26 with renewed optimism and postseason experience. Led by Tim Stützle (79 points) and captain Brady Tkachuk (29 goals, 228 hits), the Senators possess a blend of skill and physicality that can challenge any team. Offseason addition Jordan Spence bolsters a young blue line, while goaltender Linus Ullmark anchors the crease after a 25-win campaign. The Senators’ focus will be puck management against Tampa Bay’s aggressive forecheck — and keeping Kucherov from controlling the tempo on special teams. Expect a hungry effort from a team determined to prove last year wasn’t a fluke.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay remains an Eastern Conference heavyweight, but this year begins with lingering tension from their fiery preseason series with Florida — which ended with 322 combined penalty minutes and a pair of fines from the NHL. Despite the chaos, Jon Cooper’s team remains poised to contend, thanks to Nikita Kucherov (121 points) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (38 wins, 6 shutouts). The Lightning will be without suspended defenseman J.J. Moser, but Cooper has retooled his bottom six with Curtis Douglas and Jack Finley to restore physical edge. Expect Tampa Bay to dictate pace early, feeding off home-ice energy and Kucherov’s playmaking.
Injuries and Conditions
| Ottawa Senators | Tampa Bay Lightning |
|---|---|
| D Artem Zub – Questionable (upper body) | D J.J. Moser – Suspended (2 games) |
| F Josh Norris – Probable (shoulder) | D Erik Cernak – Probable (maintenance) |
| G Linus Ullmark – Starting | G Andrei Vasilevskiy – Starting |
| D Jordan Spence – Expected to debut Ottawa Senators Injury Report | F Brandon Hagel – Healthy Tampa Bay Lightning Injury Report |
Weather: Indoors at Benchmark International Arena. No weather concerns.
Best Bets and Prediction
Tampa Bay’s championship-tested core and elite goaltending give them the edge in this Atlantic Division opener, but Ottawa’s improved structure and young firepower make them a capable underdog. Expect both teams to trade chances early before the Lightning’s depth and special teams take control.
Pick: Lightning Moneyline (-169)
Projected Final Score: Lightning 4, Senators 2
Lean: Over 6.0 (-115)
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Lightning ML (-169) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Lightning 4, Senators 2 |
| Total Lean | Over 6.0 (-115) |
| Market Split | 64% bets Lightning, 58% money Ottawa |
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