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SMU Mustangs vs Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview
The SMU Mustangs are starting to find their rhythm as they host the Stanford Cardinal in an early-season ACC clash on Saturday afternoon at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET on ESPN2, with SMU favored heavily after a confidence-boosting win over Syracuse in their ACC opener. Stanford, fresh off a bye, enters looking to build momentum after a thrilling comeback win over San Jose State.
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This matchup features two programs trending in opposite directions — SMU aiming to stay relevant in the ACC race, and Stanford working through the early stages of a rebuild under interim head coach Frank Reich.
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Line Movement and Betting Overview
SMU opened as a -17.5 favorite, and early money poured in on the Mustangs after their convincing win over Syracuse, pushing the line to -18.5. The total opened at 61.0 and has seen a slight uptick as bettors expect both teams to lean on their quarterbacks in a pass-heavy affair.
The Mustangs have won six straight ACC home games dating back to last season, while Stanford is just 1-7 in its last eight road contests.
“It doesn’t have to be pretty, but we finished,” said SMU coach Rhett Lashlee. “That was a big step for our team.”
Matchup Breakdown
Stanford Cardinal Outlook
Stanford enters this game with renewed confidence after a dramatic 30-29 comeback win over San Jose State before the bye week. Quarterback Ben Gulbranson erupted for 444 yards and two touchdowns, the third-highest single-game total in program history.
The Cardinal offense found its rhythm through the air with wide receivers CJ Williams (11 catches, 130 yards) and Caden High (5 catches, 110 yards) leading the charge. Stanford showed big-play potential, converting a crucial fourth-and-10 late in the fourth quarter to set up the game-winning score.
Still, defensive struggles remain a concern. Stanford allowed 473 passing yards in that same game, continuing a trend of giving up chunk plays through the air. The Cardinal rank 119th nationally in pass defense, and that weakness could spell trouble against SMU’s high-octane passing attack.
Interim coach Frank Reich emphasized internal consistency this week:
“We’re working on being a more consistent football team in all three phases,” Reich said. “We’ve made good progress, but we still have a ways to go.”
SMU Mustangs Outlook
After a rough stretch that included late-game collapses against Baylor and TCU, SMU (3-2, 1-0 ACC) showed poise and control in a 31-18 victory over Syracuse. Quarterback Kevin Jennings was nearly flawless, completing 29 of 35 passes for 285 yards and four touchdowns — each to a different receiver.
The Mustangs’ offense has rediscovered its identity, combining precision passing with balance in the run game. Running back Jaylan Knighton adds versatility, while the wide receiver group — led by Jordan Hudson and Key’Shawn Smith — spreads defenses thin.
Defensively, SMU has tightened up since the TCU loss, holding Syracuse to under 300 total yards. Their pass rush, anchored by Elijah Roberts, has generated steady pressure, and the defense ranks 27th nationally in sacks.
Coach Rhett Lashlee praised his team’s ability to close games:
“We’ve been there before and couldn’t finish. This time we did. Now we know how to do it.”
Injuries and Conditions
| Stanford Cardinal | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|
| QB Ben Gulbranson – Probable (ankle) | WR Jordan Hudson – Questionable (hamstring) |
| WR CJ Williams – Probable (shoulder) | RB Jaylan Knighton – Probable (knee) |
| DL Jaxson Moi – Out (foot) | LB Nick Roberts – Out (ankle) |
| OL Levi Rogers – Questionable (illness) | S Isaiah Nwokobia – Probable (wrist) |
Best Bets and Prediction
SMU is simply the more polished and explosive team on both sides of the ball. Stanford’s defense has struggled to contain vertical passing attacks, and Jennings should have another efficient day through the air.
While Stanford’s offense can create chunk plays, SMU’s pass rush and home-field advantage should be enough to keep the Cardinal at bay. Expect the Mustangs to build an early lead and keep their foot on the gas to avoid another late-game scare.
Pick: SMU -18.5 (-110)
Projected Score: SMU 41, Stanford 21
Lean: Over 61.0 (-110)
Trend to Know: SMU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games and 5-0 ATS versus teams with losing records.
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | SMU -18.5 (-110) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | SMU 41, Stanford 21 |
| Total Lean | Over 61.0 |
| Market Split | 68% bets on SMU, 58% money on Over |
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