Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Picks and Predictions October 23rd 2025

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The Tampa Bay Lightning return to home ice Thursday night aiming to end an uneven start when they host the Chicago Blackhawks at Benchmark International Arena. Puck drop is 6:45 PM ET on ESPN+.

Tampa Bay has earned only four points in six games after finishing with 102 last season. The Lightning were dominant at home a year ago, and coach Jon Cooper believes stability there could spark a turnaround. “We’ve got to start erring on the side of brilliance a little bit,” he said after an inconsistent road trip.

Chicago enters with momentum after a 2-1 overtime win against Anaheim. Rookie stars Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar continue to drive the offense, each with seven points. Behind them, goaltender Spencer Knight has anchored the net with a 1.96 GAA and .937 save percentage, giving the young Blackhawks confidence early in the campaign.

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Line Movement and Odds

The Lightning opened around -290 on the moneyline and have climbed to -310, while Chicago sits near +250. Tampa Bay’s puck line is +1.5 (-120), and the total is 6 goals (Over -115, Under -105) according to the latest NHL odds

Sharp bettors backed Tampa Bay early, expecting a bounce-back spot, but the public continues to grab the plus money with Chicago. The total has remained firm, showing balanced action from both sides.

Matchup Breakdown

Tampa Bay’s power play remains elite, converting at 26 percent, but the Lightning rank near the bottom third of the league in even-strength goals. Nikita Kucherov is expected to return from illness to reunite with Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel on the top line.

Chicago’s young core has sparked life into its offense. Bedard’s playmaking complements Nazar’s finishing touch, while Teuvo Teravainen has provided veteran consistency. The Blackhawks’ penalty kill, ranked in the league’s top ten, has been vital in keeping games tight.

The battle to watch is Tampa Bay’s forecheck against Chicago’s transition game. The Lightning allow 32.8 shots per night, while the Blackhawks generate strong rush chances, making this a pace-driven matchup for bettors tracking totals.

Injuries and Conditions

Tampa Bay Lightning (injury report):

  • Zemgus Girgensons, LW – Out (undisclosed)
  • Max Crozier, D – Out (undisclosed)
  • Nikita Kucherov, RW – Probable (illness)
  • Nick Paul, LW – Out (upper body)

Chicago Blackhawks (injury report):

  • Laurent Brossoit, G – Out (hip)
  • Jason Dickinson, C – Questionable (undisclosed)
  • Nick Foligno, LW – Questionable (personal)
  • Shea Weber, D – Out (lower body)

No weather issues are expected for this indoor matchup.

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Best Bets and Prediction

Tampa Bay is 1-5 overall and 0-3 on the puck line in its last three, while Chicago has covered in four of its last five as an underdog. With both teams trending differently against the spread, it’s a test of home dominance versus road momentum.

Projected Score: Lightning 4, Blackhawks 2
Best Bet: Tampa Bay in regulation (-150)
Lean: Over 6 goals (-115)

Check the latest moneyline updates and total shifts before placing your wager on the free NHL picks page.

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