Florida State Seminoles vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Picks and Predictions November 1st 2025

Game Preview: Florida State vs Wake Forest

The Florida State Seminoles return from their bye week desperate to stop a four-game losing streak when they host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday night in Tallahassee.

Head coach Mike Norvell’s seat is red hot after Florida State (3-4, 0-4 ACC) fell 38-21 at Stanford on Oct. 18, marking its ninth consecutive ACC defeat. The Seminoles’ athletic director issued a statement confirming the program’s future will be evaluated at season’s end, leaving Norvell in must-win territory entering Week 10.

Wake Forest (5-2, 2-2 ACC) arrives with confidence following a gritty 13-12 win over SMU that handed the Mustangs their first conference loss. Despite turning the ball over five times, the Demon Deacons’ defense allowed zero points off those mistakes and held SMU’s potent offense to just 246 yards.

For current line movement, injury updates, and totals tracking, check the NCAAF odds and scores page before kickoff.

Line Movement and Odds

Florida State opened as a 6.5-point home favorite, with the total around 47.5. The spread has tightened slightly as bettors weigh the Seminoles’ quarterback uncertainty and Wake Forest’s improving defensive metrics. Early sharp action has leaned toward the under, anticipating a low-scoring contest dominated by mistakes and field position.

Consensus predictions, live projections, and late steam moves for this matchup are available on the NCAAF picks page.

Florida State Seminoles Outlook

The Florida State Seminoles used their bye week to regroup after back-to-back road losses. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos remains the focal point of the offense, having thrown for 1,607 yards and accounted for 14 total touchdowns. He was sidelined late in the Stanford game with a head injury but returned to practice this week and could start if cleared.

Offensively, Florida State averages 27.1 points per game but has struggled with turnovers and red-zone efficiency. Defensively, the Seminoles rank 10th in the ACC in total yards allowed (389.4) and have surrendered 33 points per game during their losing streak.

Head coach Mike Norvell stressed discipline and communication as key focus points, saying the team must “start fast and finish clean” to regain confidence.

Florida State Seminoles Injury Report

Tommy Castellanos (QB) – Questionable (Head)
Destyn Hill (WR) – Questionable (Knee)
Kalen DeLoach (LB) – Out (Shoulder)
Fabien Lovett (DL) – Out (Foot)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Outlook

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons continue to overachieve under first-year head coach Jake Dickert. At 5-2, they’ve already matched their ACC win total from each of the past two seasons. The defense has become the backbone of the team, holding opponents to just 21.3 points per game despite frequent offensive turnovers.

Quarterback play remains uncertain. Robby Ashford started the SMU game while nursing a thumb injury, and backup Deshawn Purdie took most of the snaps, throwing for 183 yards with two interceptions. Dickert indicated both will prepare this week, but Ashford will start only if fully healthy.

Running back Justice Ellison leads the offense with 582 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while receiver Taylor Morin has emerged as a reliable third-down target.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Injury Report

Robby Ashford (QB) – Questionable (Thumb)
Deshawn Purdie (QB) – Probable (Undisclosed)
Justice Ellison (RB) – Probable (Knee)
Taylor Morin (WR) – Questionable (Ankle)

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The matchup hinges on quarterback health and composure. If Castellanos plays and avoids turnovers, Florida State’s offensive ceiling rises significantly. Wake Forest’s defensive line will look to exploit protection issues that have plagued the Seminoles in recent weeks.

For Wake Forest, establishing the run early and winning the field-position battle will be crucial. If the Demon Deacons’ defense continues forcing turnovers without giving up explosive plays, they can keep this one within reach deep into the fourth quarter.

Betting Trends

• Florida State is 0-9 straight up in its last nine ACC games.
• The Seminoles are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
• Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five road contests.
• The Demon Deacons are 5-2 to the under this season.
• Florida State is 2-6 ATS after a bye since 2020.
• Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS in November games since 2022.

Prediction

Florida State’s urgency and home-field advantage could spark a rebound, but Wake Forest’s defensive discipline keeps this close. Expect a grind-it-out game where turnovers and red-zone execution determine the outcome.

Projected Score: Florida State 24, Wake Forest 20
Best Bet: Wake Forest +6.5
Total Lean: Under 47.5

Scores and Stats Handicappers

Check expert leaderboards and premium NCAAF selections from verified cappers on the Scores and Stats Handicappers page. Track win percentages, profit streaks, and ATS consistency before placing your Week 10 bets.