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Georgia Bulldogs vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Preview
The Georgia Bulldogs hit the road Saturday for an early SEC showdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville.
No. 5 Georgia (7–1, 5–1 SEC) enters the game riding a four-game win streak and remains firmly in the College Football Playoff hunt after edging Florida 24–20 last week. Still, head coach Kirby Smart continues to push for a more dominant performance from his team, emphasizing execution over final score lines.
Mississippi State (5–4, 1–4 SEC) finally broke through in conference play with a dramatic 38–35 comeback win at Arkansas, snapping a 16-game SEC losing streak. Now one victory away from bowl eligibility, the Bulldogs return home looking to carry that momentum into their biggest test of the season.
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Odds and Key Information
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia –17.5 / Mississippi State +17.5 |
| Moneyline | Georgia –950 / Mississippi State +640 |
| Total (O/U) | 56.5 points |
| Venue | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS |
| Time | Saturday, Nov. 8, 11:00 AM CT |
| Broadcast | ESPN |
Georgia leads the all-time series 21–6 and last lost in Starkville in 2010.
Georgia Outlook
The Georgia Bulldogs remain one of the most complete teams in the country, though recent close contests have revealed areas Smart wants to clean up. Georgia’s offense has been efficient but not explosive, averaging 34.8 points per game while ranking top-25 nationally in both total offense (455.6 YPG) and time of possession.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton has been the key. In his first full year as the starter, Stockton has thrown for 1,776 yards, 12 touchdowns, and just two interceptions while adding seven rushing scores — the most among SEC quarterbacks. His dual-threat ability continues to expand Georgia’s playbook, especially in the red zone.
Defensively, Georgia remains elite. The Bulldogs rank fourth in FBS in scoring defense (13.9 PPG) and fifth in total defense (269.3 YPG). Linebackers Smael Mondon Jr. and Jamon Dumas-Johnson anchor a front seven that has allowed just 3.2 yards per rush.
Georgia’s challenge will be maintaining focus during an early kickoff in one of the SEC’s loudest environments. With the CFP rankings tight, a convincing win would help the Bulldogs’ postseason positioning.
Mississippi State Outlook
The Mississippi State Bulldogs enter this matchup rejuvenated after breaking a long conference drought with last week’s comeback win. Under head coach Jeff Lebby, the Bulldogs have evolved into one of the SEC’s more balanced offensive units, averaging 33.2 points per game — the program’s best mark since 2015.
Quarterback Blake Shapen has provided leadership and consistency. The senior has thrown for 2,146 yards and 16 total touchdowns while completing 65.4% of his passes. His command of the quick-pass system has allowed Mississippi State to stay competitive despite offensive line struggles.
Running back Jo’Quavious Marks and receiver Lideatrick Griffin remain the focal points of the attack. Marks has rushed for 612 yards and seven touchdowns, while Griffin’s explosiveness in the slot (562 receiving yards, 4 TDs) gives Shapen a reliable vertical option.
The defense, however, continues to be a concern. Mississippi State allows 29.4 points and 406.5 total yards per game, ranking near the bottom of the SEC. Against a physical Georgia front, maintaining balance on offense and limiting turnovers will be essential to staying competitive.
Key Matchup Table
| Category | Georgia | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 34.8 | 33.2 |
| Total Yards per Game | 455.6 | 404.1 |
| Rush Defense (YPG) | 103.8 | 166.7 |
| Sacks | 21 | 16 |
| Turnover Margin | +7 | –3 |
Georgia’s defensive efficiency remains the separator, while Mississippi State’s reliance on Shapen’s arm could invite pressure.
Key Storylines
Kirby Smart’s push for dominance – Georgia keeps winning, but Smart wants a wire-to-wire performance to reinforce playoff credentials.
Mississippi State’s confidence surge – Ending a 16-game SEC skid could propel the Bulldogs to play freely in front of their home crowd.
Quarterback duel – Stockton’s dual-threat mobility contrasts with Shapen’s timing-based accuracy, offering two very different offensive identities.
Noise factor – Davis Wade Stadium’s compact design amplifies sound, and an 11 AM kickoff could test Georgia’s focus.
Betting Trends
- Georgia is 8–1 straight up in its last nine SEC games.
- Mississippi State is 4–1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five home games.
- The total has gone over in four of Georgia’s last six games.
- Mississippi State is 1–9 straight up in its last ten games vs ranked teams.
- Georgia has covered in five of its last six games following a win.
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Predictions
The Georgia Bulldogs should control this matchup from start to finish. Mississippi State’s offense can create flashes of excitement, but Georgia’s defensive discipline and ability to pressure the quarterback will limit consistent drives. Expect Smart’s team to finally deliver the “complete” performance he’s been seeking.
Projected score: Georgia 38, Mississippi State 17
Spread pick: Georgia –17.5
Total lean: Over 56.5
Georgia dominates both lines of scrimmage and outpaces Mississippi State with second-half adjustments and superior depth.
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Late-season SEC games often bring sharp action, and understanding public-vs-sharp money splits can reveal hidden value. Access verified capper records on the College Football Picks page and detailed trend models through the Expert Betting Guide.
