Vanderbilt Commodores vs Auburn Tigers Picks and Predictions November 8th 2025

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Auburn Tigers Game Preview

The Vanderbilt Commodores enter Week 11 ranked No. 16 in the College Football Playoff standings and facing a must-win scenario when they host the Auburn Tigers on Saturday in Nashville.

Vanderbilt (7–2, 3–2 SEC) nearly pulled off a comeback at No. 11 Texas, falling 34–31 after a furious fourth-quarter rally. The narrow loss trimmed their postseason margin for error to zero as they look to remain in the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl.

Auburn (4–5, 1–5 SEC) hits the reset button after firing head coach Hugh Freeze. Interim coach D.J. Durkin takes over a program desperate for stability following a 10–3 home loss to Kentucky. The Tigers must win out to qualify for a bowl, making Saturday’s matchup critical.

Follow the latest market data, spread changes, and betting splits on the NCAAF odds and scores board before kickoff.

Odds and Key Information

Vanderbilt enters as a double-digit home favorite, powered by an offense averaging over 33 points per game. Auburn’s scoring struggles, combined with a coaching transition, have pushed early money toward the Commodores.

Category	Value
Spread	Vanderbilt –10.5 / Auburn +10.5
Moneyline	Vanderbilt –420 / Auburn +320
Total (O/U)	51.5 points
Venue	FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Time	Saturday, Nov. 8, 4:00 PM ET
Broadcast	SEC Network

The Commodores are 4–1 ATS at home this season, while Auburn is just 1–4 in SEC road games dating back to 2024.

Vanderbilt Outlook

The Vanderbilt Commodores are trending upward despite last week’s loss. Quarterback Diego Pavia continues to elevate the offense, posting a career-high 365 passing yards and four total touchdowns against Texas. Tight end Eli Stowers has emerged as a mismatch weapon, recording 146 yards and two scores, including a 67-yard strike that sparked Vanderbilt’s rally.

Vanderbilt’s offense ranks 25th nationally in passing efficiency and 31st in total yards per game. The Commodores have averaged 38.7 points over their last three home contests, thriving behind an offensive line that has allowed just eight sacks in five games.

Defensively, Marlen Sewell anchors a unit that has generated 14 takeaways this season and excels at limiting explosive plays. The secondary has been particularly disciplined, holding opponents under 58% completions.

Coach Clark Lea has emphasized focus, reminding players that their postseason path depends on eliminating late-game errors. With a 7–2 record and a favorable finish ahead, Vanderbilt cannot afford a misstep against a team in transition.

Auburn Outlook

The Auburn Tigers begin a new chapter under interim coach D.J. Durkin, who will call defensive plays while offensive coordinator Derrick Nix assumes full control of the offense. The Tigers’ staff shuffle comes after a deflating 10–3 loss to Kentucky, where turnovers and protection issues doomed their efforts.

Auburn’s offensive line allowed seven sacks last week, and quarterback Ashton Daniels struggled before being briefly replaced by Jackson Arnold in the fourth quarter. Durkin has not named a starter for Saturday, saying both quarterbacks are “tremendous young men” capable of leading the team. Deuce Knight could also see situational snaps.

The Tigers have averaged just 17.6 points in SEC play, ranking near the bottom of the conference. Their defense, however, has remained competitive, holding opponents to 23.4 points per game and ranking top 40 nationally in third-down stops.

For Auburn, success depends on sustaining drives and avoiding turnovers. Against a disciplined Vanderbilt defense, balance between the run and play action is essential. The Tigers’ defensive front must also contain Pavia’s mobility, which burned Texas for multiple extended plays last week.

Key Storylines

Vanderbilt’s offense will test Auburn’s defensive front from the outset. Pavia’s dual-threat ability has kept SEC defenses guessing, and with Stowers commanding double coverage, wideouts like Jaden McGowan could find open space underneath.

Auburn’s biggest question is at quarterback. If Daniels starts, expect more conservative play-calling focused on clock control. If Arnold gets the nod, the Tigers could open up their vertical game — though that might expose them to Vanderbilt’s opportunistic secondary.

Turnover margin could be decisive. Vanderbilt’s +8 differential ranks among the best in the SEC, while Auburn sits at –4. In a game likely decided by possession length and field position, protecting the ball becomes paramount.

Betting Trends

• Vanderbilt is 5–2 ATS in its last seven conference games.
• The Commodores are 6–1 straight up at home against teams below .500.
• Auburn has failed to cover four of its past five SEC matchups.
• The total has gone under in five of Auburn’s last six games.
• Vanderbilt has hit the over in three of its past four home contests.

Understanding how trends interact with coaching changes is vital for bettors — explore more analytical frameworks in the NFL expert betting guide.

Predictions

The Vanderbilt Commodores enter with superior offensive rhythm and defensive stability, while the Auburn Tigers are still adjusting to a midseason coaching shift. Vanderbilt’s passing game should exploit Auburn’s secondary, and its defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage.

Projected score: Vanderbilt 34, Auburn 17
Spread pick: Vanderbilt –10.5
Total lean: Under 51.5

Pavia and Stowers continue to connect as Vanderbilt reasserts control in the SEC middle tier. Auburn’s unsettled offense limits its upset potential, especially on the road.

Why You Need Expert Picks

The SEC market can shift quickly when coaching changes and injuries disrupt public confidence. Access verified performance metrics and model-based analysis on the Handicappers Leaderboard to find reliable plays before kickoff.

For complete projections and betting strategy updates, visit the NCAAF picks section and reinforce your approach with the NFL expert betting guide for cross-sport insights.