Tcu Horned Frogs vs Iowa State Cyclones Picks and Predictions November 8th 2025

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TCU Horned Frogs vs Iowa State Cyclones Game Preview

The TCU Horned Frogs enter a crucial November stretch with their Big 12 Championship hopes still alive, starting with Saturday’s matchup against the Iowa State Cyclones at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth.

TCU (6–2, 3–2 Big 12) has regained momentum with a two-game winning streak and remains perfect at home this season (4–0). Coach Sonny Dykes’ team has improved defensively and continues to lean on one of the conference’s most dynamic passing attacks. With several key matchups ahead, the Horned Frogs know every win counts if they hope to return to the conference title game.

Iowa State (5–4, 2–4 Big 12) has been sliding in recent weeks after a 5–0 start but has stayed competitive, with three of its four losses decided by one score. Head coach Matt Campbell remains optimistic that his team is close to turning the corner, crediting his veteran quarterback Rocco Becht for keeping them within reach of victory each week.

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Odds and Key Information

CategoryValue
SpreadTCU –6.5 / Iowa State +6.5
MoneylineTCU –237 / Iowa State +194
Total (O/U)57.5 points
VenueAmon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
TimeSaturday, Nov. 8, 3:30 PM ET
BroadcastFOX

Iowa State has won four of the last five meetings in the series, including a 27–14 victory in 2023.

TCU Outlook

The TCU Horned Frogs have found their stride heading into November. Off a bye week and riding a seven-game home winning streak, they’ll look to continue that dominance against a team that has given them trouble in recent years.

Quarterback Josh Hoover has stabilized the offense, throwing efficiently with 2,412 yards and 17 touchdowns while avoiding turnovers in recent games. TCU ranks 11th nationally in passing offense (301.5 YPG), though the rushing attack remains inconsistent at 108th overall.

The Horned Frogs’ defense, however, has carried them at key moments. They rank top-10 nationally in interceptions (9) and seventh in fumble recoveries (5), consistently flipping field position and limiting explosive plays. If Hoover and the passing game stay sharp, TCU has the upper hand at home.

Wide receiver Joseph Manjack IV’s return from injury should add depth and explosiveness to an offense that already features playmakers like JP Richardson and Emani Bailey.

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Iowa State Outlook

The Iowa State Cyclones are desperate to end their four-game losing streak, but the performances have been closer than the record suggests. The Cyclones have been efficient on the ground and balanced overall, ranking among the few teams nationally with two rushers over 550 yards — Carson Hansen (613) and Abu Sama (558).

Quarterback Rocco Becht continues to progress, throwing for 2,119 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. His leadership and mobility have given the Cyclones stability under center, and he’s now one touchdown away from surpassing Brock Purdy’s school record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback.

Defensively, Iowa State thrives on forcing mistakes. They rank seventh in fumbles recovered and eighth in interceptions, with a disciplined secondary that could test Hoover. The challenge will be keeping up with TCU’s aerial attack while managing key injuries — including tight end Ben Brahmer and several defensive starters.

Key Storylines

Playoff push vs spoiler role – TCU is fighting for a Big 12 title berth, while Iowa State is eager to play spoiler and solidify bowl eligibility.

Rocco Becht’s composure – The junior quarterback must protect the ball and extend drives against an opportunistic TCU defense.

Turnovers and tempo – Both teams rank among the nation’s best in forcing turnovers; whichever side wins the takeaway battle should control momentum.

Passing vs rushing identity – TCU relies heavily on the pass, while Iowa State thrives on its two-headed rushing attack — a classic clash of styles.

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Betting Trends

  • TCU is 7–0 straight up in its last seven home games.
  • Iowa State is 5–2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in its last seven.
  • TCU is 10–1 straight up as a favorite in its last 11.
  • The Cyclones have gone under the total in four of their last six games.
  • TCU is 5–0 ATS after a loss in its last five, showing resilience under Dykes.

Explore more trend analysis in the expert betting guide.

Predictions

The TCU Horned Frogs hold key advantages at home — momentum, rest, and superior passing efficiency. Iowa State’s ground game can keep this close, but the Cyclones’ red-zone inefficiency remains a concern against TCU’s opportunistic defense.

Projected score: TCU 28, Iowa State 24
Spread pick: Iowa State +6.5
Total lean: Under 57.5

Expect a tight contest defined by defensive takeaways and fourth-quarter execution. The Horned Frogs keep their Big 12 title hopes alive, but the Cyclones cover in another close fight.

Why You Need Expert Picks

As November conference games tighten, line movement and motivation matter more than stats alone. Track verified records on the College Football Picks page and compare market value on the NCAAF odds board.

For betting angles and live-betting tactics, explore the Expert Betting Guide.

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