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Game Preview – Florida State @ Florida
The Florida Gators look to build off a dominant bounce-back performance when they host the Florida State Seminoles in a heated in-state rivalry Tuesday night at Exactech Arena in Gainesville.
After falling 93-87 to Arizona in their opener, No. 10 Florida (1-1) responded with a 104-64 rout of North Florida. Junior forward Alex Condon returned to All-America form with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks in the win, while Micah Handlogten added 17 points and 13 boards.
“I thought he was great,” said Florida head coach Todd Golden of Condon. “He wasn’t feeling sorry for himself. He just came out with a great mentality and let the game come to him.”
The defending national champions dominated the Ospreys inside, outrebounding them 64-24 and outscoring them 66-22 in the paint. Through two games, Florida’s frontcourt trio of Thomas Haugh (19.5 PPG), Condon (18.0 PPG), and Handlogten (14.0 PPG) has combined for 51.5 points and 29 rebounds per game.
Florida State (2-0), under first-year coach Luke Loucks, has impressed early with back-to-back 100-point efforts. The Seminoles defeated Alcorn State and Alabama State by a combined 69 points, marking their first consecutive 100-point games since the 1988-89 season.
Loucks has implemented an up-tempo, NBA-style offense that has flourished early, with Florida State shooting 51.4% from the floor and 40.3% from three-point range. St. Bonaventure transfer Lajae Jones leads the team at 19.0 points per game while shooting 75% from deep.
The Seminoles’ shooting depth will be tested against Florida’s size and physicality, as only two of FSU’s main rotation players stand taller than 6-foot-7.
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Trusted Records, Winning Consistency
Line Movement and Odds
Florida opened as an 18.5-point favorite, with the total set at 178.5 points.
| Market | Current Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Florida -18.5 (-111) / Florida State +18.5 (-108) |
| Total (O/U) | 178.5 Points |
| Moneyline | Florida -3266 / Florida State +1366 |
Track line changes and odds updates live at the college basketball odds board.
Florida Outlook
The Gators have reestablished their dominance inside and continue to control tempo through rebounding and efficient frontcourt play. Florida ranks 12th nationally in total rebounds per game and has converted 64% of its field goals in the paint.
Alex Condon’s bounce-back effort against North Florida highlighted his versatility and leadership, while Haugh’s consistency (19.5 PPG) has made Florida’s offense more dynamic. The Gators also hold a 4-0 series edge over Florida State since 2021, a reversal from the Seminoles’ seven-game streak between 2014 and 2020.
Defensively, Todd Golden’s team has limited opponents to 31% shooting and ranks top 10 in defensive rebounding percentage. Expect the Gators to rely heavily on half-court discipline and interior defense to neutralize Florida State’s perimeter attack.
Florida Injury Report
No major injuries reported.
Florida State Outlook
The Seminoles’ offense has been one of the most explosive in the nation to start the season. Luke Loucks’ system emphasizes pace and spacing, allowing shooters like Lajae Jones and Chauncey Wiggins (17 PPG) to thrive from deep.
Florida State ranks third nationally in made three-pointers per game (15.5) and fourth in free-throw percentage (90.9%). However, their lack of size and rebounding depth may become a problem against a Gators squad that thrives on second-chance points.
If Florida State can maintain its shooting efficiency and avoid foul trouble inside, they have the potential to keep the game closer than expected.
Florida State Injury Report
No major injuries reported.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
The key matchup lies in the paint. Florida’s trio of Condon, Haugh, and Handlogten towers over Florida State’s smaller lineup. The Seminoles’ ability to space the floor with perimeter shooting will be their best counter to the Gators’ interior size.
Expect Florida to dominate the rebounding battle, while Florida State tries to turn the game into a high-possession shootout. If the Seminoles can hit 15+ threes again, they could cover the spread — or at least make things interesting late.
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Betting Trends
- Florida is 4-0 SU in its last four games vs. Florida State.
- The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
- Florida State is 2-0 ATS this season.
- The over has hit in five of Florida’s last six games.
- Florida State has gone over in both games this year.
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Prediction
Florida’s size, interior scoring, and rebounding depth should prove too much for the Seminoles’ smaller lineup. However, Florida State’s hot shooting and fast tempo could help them stay within the number if they maintain their rhythm from deep.
Projected Score: Florida 102, Florida State 95
Best Bet: Florida State +18.5
Total Lean: Under 178.5
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