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Game Preview: Houston Cougars @ Oakland Golden Grizzlies
The top-ranked Houston Cougars will host the Oakland Golden Grizzlies on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, at the Fertitta Center in Houston. It’s the Cougars’ first appearance as No. 1 in the early season in program history, and they enter 2-0 with a dominant defensive identity. Oakland (0-2) has already endured a brutal schedule — facing Michigan and Purdue — and now draws another national power.
Houston earned the top ranking after leapfrogging Purdue in the polls. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s team returned most of its defensive core and added impact freshmen who fit the Cougars’ rebounding and pressure system. Houston has opened its season by holding both opponents under 60 points and forcing more than 20 turnovers per game.
Oakland’s grind continues. Coach Greg Kampe has pushed his team through what might be the toughest non-conference start in college basketball. The Golden Grizzlies played then-No. 7 Michigan and No. 1 Purdue in their first two games and held their own for extended stretches. Their frontcourt play has been a bright spot — particularly Ziare Wells’ rebounding and scoring versatility.
For live movement and public-vs-sharp splits, check the college basketball odds page.
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Odds and Key Information
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Houston -29.5 (-114), Oakland +29.5 (-107) |
| Moneyline | Houston -13000, Oakland +2800 |
| Total | 136.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Venue | Fertitta Center, Houston TX |
| Time | Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET |
Houston opened as a near 30-point favorite — the largest spread of its season so far. Totals hover around 136.5, suggesting a grind-it-out defensive tempo. Public tickets have leaned to the Cougars, but Oakland has drawn interest from sharp bettors looking for a back-door cover.
See alternative spreads and props in the NCAAB picks section.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies Outlook
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies remain winless but battle-tested. In their 87-77 loss at Purdue, they trailed by only one at halftime before fading under a 13-three-pointer onslaught. Ziare Wells (21 points, 12 rebounds) led the charge and helped Oakland out-rebound Purdue 39-37, an impressive feat against a front line featuring All-America size.
Oakland’s offense runs through its starters. All five — Wells, Nassim Mashhour, Tuburu Naivalurua, Brody Robinson, and Isaac Garrett — played 33 minutes or more against Purdue. Kampe’s rotations are tight, with only two reserves logging meaningful minutes. The starters have responded by scoring in double figures every game, but fatigue and turnover issues emerge late.
Statistically, the Grizzlies average 77.5 points per game and make 9.5 threes per contest. Their shooting efficiency from deep (37 percent) keeps them competitive against superior rosters. To cover a massive spread, Oakland will need to slow Houston’s pace, hit open shots, and stay within single digits on the glass.
Their defense remains a concern. Opponents have scored over 100 points in one game and shot 50 percent in another. However, their willingness to crash the boards and attack early in the shot clock offers some optimism for keeping the margin respectable.
Learn more about mid-major trends in the NCAAB expert betting guide.
Houston Cougars Outlook
The Houston Cougars are embracing the pressure that comes with the No. 1 ranking. They’ve opened 2-0 behind the country’s top-five defensive efficiency, holding opponents to just 52.5 points per game on 36 percent shooting. Kelvin Sampson’s teams pride themselves on rebounding and turnover creation, and this roster has already established those traits.
Freshman Kingston Flemings has been an early headline, scoring 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting against Towson. Junior forward Joseph Tugler adds physicality inside, averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, and five steals per game. Chris Cenac controls the boards and contributes 13 rebounds a night through two games.
Houston’s biggest focus is offensive efficiency. The Cougars shot just 25 percent from three (8-for-32) in their last game but offset that with 12 offensive rebounds and 11 steals. Sampson has emphasized cleaner ball movement and balanced scoring — elements they’ll test again against Oakland’s rotating zones.
At home, Houston has won 20 straight games dating back to last season. They rank among the nation’s leaders in rebounding rate and points off turnovers, a formula that creates separation against inferior competition.
Key Matchup Table
| Category | Advantage |
|---|---|
| Defensive Efficiency | Houston |
| Rebounding Margin | Houston |
| Three-Point Shooting | Oakland |
| Turnover Creation | Houston |
| Bench Depth | Houston |
| Free-Throw Rate | Houston |
| Tempo | Oakland |
| Coaching Continuity | Houston |
Oakland’s only statistical edge lies in its willingness to shoot from deep and push tempo. However, Houston’s defense is elite at forcing contested shots and limiting second chances. If Oakland cannot consistently hit from outside or handle Houston’s pressure, this could turn lopsided quickly.
Betting Trends
- Houston is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games against non-conference opponents.
- Oakland is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 games as a road underdog of 20 points or more.
- Under has hit in five of Houston’s last seven games with totals below 140.
- Oakland has gone over in two straight games to start the season.
- Houston is 23-2 straight up in its last 25 November home games.
For more market data and conference breakdowns, visit the NCAAB odds page and NCAAB blog hub.
Predictions
The model projects another comfortable win for Houston but shows potential value on Oakland covering. The Grizzlies’ offense can keep pace long enough to stay within the number before Houston’s depth takes over late. Expect the Cougars to control tempo and dominate the boards, but Oakland’s shot volume and outside efficiency make a 30-point margin steep.
Projected Final Score: Houston 85, Oakland 70
Spread Pick: Oakland +29.5
Total Lean: Over 136.5
Check out additional college basketball previews and power-ratings in the NCAAB expert betting guide.
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For futures and props coverage, explore the conference breakdown blog for more season-long insights.
Projected Final: Houston Cougars 85, Oakland Golden Grizzlies 70
Spread Pick: Oakland +29.5
Total Lean: Over 136.5
