Ucf Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Picks and Predictions November 22nd 2025

Game Preview UCF Knights @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

Two struggling programs meet Saturday in Orlando as the UCF Knights host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a matchup featuring two teams desperate to stop prolonged losing streaks. Across the last eight weeks, the Knights and Cowboys have combined for just one win, with both offenses sputtering and both defenses collapsing under workload and inconsistency.

Oklahoma State enters at 1–9, having fired longtime head coach Mike Gundy in September after the program’s worst start in decades. Interim coach Doug Meacham has seen flashes of progress — including last week’s tight game at Kansas State — but turnovers and late-game inefficiency continue to bury the Cowboys. Their loss to Kansas State featured two interceptions from quarterback Zane Flores, including a critical fourth-quarter pick inside the red zone.

UCF hasn’t fared much better. At 4–6, the Knights have been held under 300 yards in three straight games and allowed 400-plus yards defensively in that same stretch. Their 48–9 loss at Texas Tech further exposed offensive stagnation and issues in quarterback development. Starting quarterback Tayven Jackson threw for only 178 yards, marking his fifth game under 200 passing yards in his last six outings. Backup Davi Belfort has provided some mobility but limited passing exposure. Head coach Scott Frost has hinted that Belfort could see expanded usage to shake up the offense.

The statistical profile, matchup trends and efficiency indicators can be reviewed through the NCAAF teams directory and real-time projections displayed in the NCAAF scores and odds feed. Meanwhile, bettors leveraging detailed situational analysis often consult the NCAAF picks page for matchup dynamics and historical value patterns. Strategic elements from the NFL expert betting guide also apply, particularly when evaluating turnover-prone offenses against defenses that struggle to close games.

Odds and Key Information

UCF enters as a home favorite, though the margin remains narrow due to offensive inconsistency. Oklahoma State’s defensive and offensive rankings place the Cowboys near the bottom nationally, but UCF’s recent regression keeps projections relatively balanced.

Key drivers of early odds:

• Oklahoma State 1–9 and winless in the Big 12
• Cowboys bottom-six nationally in scoring offense and defense
• UCF under 300 yards in three straight games
• Knights allowing 400+ yards in consecutive matchups
• Quarterback uncertainty for UCF (Jackson vs Belfort packages)
• Oklahoma State showing defensive improvements but still turnover prone

Live movement will continue updating on the NCAAF scores and odds board, reflecting quarterback decisions and injury notes.

UCF Knights Outlook

The UCF Knights enter this matchup searching for answers on offense. Jackson has been unable to push the ball vertically and has struggled in intermediate-window accuracy. His inability to consistently stretch defenses has limited UCF’s scoring output and forced Frost to consider increased usage of freshman backup Davi Belfort.

Belfort, used primarily as a rushing threat, adds mobility that could stress Oklahoma State’s weakened linebacker unit. However, his passing inexperience remains a concern. Frost believes increased reps will improve his command of the offense, though it remains unclear whether the Knights plan to fully shift toward a dual-QB rotation.

Defensively, UCF’s front has struggled with gap control, allowing opponents to sustain drives and control time of possession. Their tackling efficiency regressed over the past month, and explosive plays against them have increased significantly. The Knights will need to generate pressure to force Oklahoma State into the kind of turnovers that derailed the Cowboys last week.

Injury Report

• No major injuries reported to key offensive players
• Defensive backfield remains thin but available
• QB rotation dependent on in-game situation

Oklahoma State Cowboys Outlook

The Oklahoma State Cowboys enter with one of the nation’s worst statistical profiles on both sides of the ball. Their scoring offense and scoring defense are each among the bottom six teams nationally. Still, the team has shown flashes of competitiveness, including last weekend’s defensive battle at Kansas State.

Quarterback Zane Flores continues to show potential but remains a turnover risk, throwing two costly interceptions in the fourth quarter last week. Meacham praised the team’s effort and fight but acknowledged that execution in scoring territory remains the central issue. The Cowboys have relied on short passing and conservative rushing schemes, which limit big-play potential but reduce volatility — until turnovers strike late.

Oklahoma State’s defense has improved situationally, particularly in the red zone, but injuries and depth concerns have forced younger players into extended snaps. Against UCF’s multi-QB look, assignment discipline becomes essential.

Injury Report

• No major quarterback-related injuries
• Front-seven depth continues to rotate due to minor lingering issues

Key Matchup Table

Category	Advantage
Quarterback mobility	UCF
Turnover risk	Oklahoma State (higher risk)
Defensive consistency	UCF
Explosive-play potential	UCF

Betting Trends

• UCF has failed to score more than 20 points in three straight games
• Oklahoma State 0–9 vs FBS opponents this season
• Cowboys unders trending due to offensive limitations
• UCF overs have struggled due to QB inconsistency
• Both teams bottom-tier in third-down conversion rate
• Oklahoma State competitive early, fading late in multiple games

Additional projected edges appear across the NCAAF picks page and real-time movement in the NCAAF odds dashboard.

Predictions

This matchup features two declining offenses, but UCF’s athletic edge and potential rushing production from Belfort give the Knights a slight advantage. Oklahoma State’s late-game collapses, turnover struggles and lack of explosive plays limit their scoring ceiling. Expect a low-scoring contest defined by field position and quarterback mistakes.

Projected Score: UCF 24, Oklahoma State 17
Spread Pick: UCF -points
Total Lean: Under

Why You Need Expert Picks

Games between struggling teams often involve wide statistical variance and unpredictability. Advanced modeling from the Handicappers Leaderboard inside the NCAAF picks section isolates drive efficiency, turnover likelihood and matchup leverage — critical for determining value on both sides and totals.