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SMU Mustangs vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
SMU brings a 7-0 record into its first true road test Friday in Starkville. The Mustangs have dominated early, with only one win decided by fewer than 11 points. Andy Enfield leans on an older roster that handled road environments well last season, and this matchup starts a four-game stretch away from Dallas. For updated pricing ahead of tipoff, visit the NCAA basketball odds page.
Mississippi State returns home at 3-3 after an overtime escape against New Orleans. The Bulldogs trailed by 13 late in regulation but rallied behind Josh Hubbard’s shot-making and Amier Ali’s late-game three. Chris Jans praised his team’s urgency but noted long stretches of sloppy execution. This becomes an early-season barometer against a top-20-level offense.
SMU enters averaging 92.7 points per game behind Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr., while Mississippi State counters with a physical, rebounding-oriented approach that gets them into transition.
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Line Movement and Odds
SMU opened as a small road favorite at −1.5 with a total in the mid-160s, one of the highest on Friday’s board. Early action has leaned toward their offensive profile while totals bettors hit the over. For comparison across Friday’s slate, check the college basketball previews page.
Matchup Breakdown
SMU wins with pace, spacing and efficiency. They shoot more than 50 percent from the field and push tempo at 74.5 possessions per game. Miller directs their offense with 20.3 points per game, and Pierre and Corey Washington give the Mustangs a versatile scoring trio. Their depth and rebounding have traveled well historically.
Mississippi State can win if they enforce physicality on the glass and slow SMU’s early-clock looks. Hubbard leads the Bulldogs at nearly 30 points in their latest win, and they average 40.8 rebounds per game, giving them second-chance opportunities. Mississippi State will need long defensive possessions, controlled pace and better perimeter coverage than they showed in Kansas City.
For broader angle checks, see the free NCAAB picks hub.
Injuries and Conditions
SMU
No new injuries reported.
Full roster: SMU team page
Mississippi State
No new reported absences.
Full roster: Mississippi State page
Indoor environment, no weather concerns.
Best Bets and Prediction
This matchup comes down to tempo. SMU’s high-octane offense has been consistent, and their veteran lineup should handle a road setting. Mississippi State can keep it close with rebounding and Hubbard’s shot creation, but their defensive lapses make the margin thin.
Projected Score: SMU 87, Mississippi State 80
Best Bet: SMU −1.5
Secondary Lean: Over 164.5
For betting structure and bankroll strategy, use the Bettors Handbook.
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ScoresAndStats Handicappers and Picks
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Strong data leads to strong wagers.h-scoring, with an average of 92.7 points per game. Mississippi State also contributes with 79.5 points per game. The combined scoring potential suggests the total will exceed 164.5.
