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Game Preview: Northern Arizona @ Arizona State
Arizona State is beginning to jell behind a rebuilt roster as the Arizona State Sun Devils return home to host the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks on Tuesday night in Tempe. The Sun Devils (7-2) are coming off an impressive 86-70 win over Oklahoma, perhaps their best performance of the season. Northern Arizona (4-4) nearly stole a road win against North Dakota State but came up one possession short. ASU opened as a double-digit home favorite with a total in the high 140s. This in-state meeting adds another layer to Tuesday’s slate on the ScoresAndStats college basketball previews page.
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Odds and Key Information
Arizona State opened between -14 and -15, with early bettors showing interest in ASU’s momentum and rotational stability. The total opened near 148 and remains steady as both teams trend toward faster-paced contests. The Sun Devils’ defensive volatility has influenced total movement, but their offensive surge against Oklahoma lifted confidence in their scoring projection.
Coach Bobby Hurley emphasized team cohesiveness, noting that with only two returners from last season, the roster’s chemistry is still developing. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar praised his team’s resilience after a near-upset Saturday but acknowledged that learning opportunities remain.
Arizona State Outlook
Arizona State’s rebuild is ahead of schedule. The Sun Devils have won five of their last six, with their only loss coming in the Maui Invitational final against USC. Transfers Moe Odum (Pepperdine) and Santiago Trouet (San Diego) have been foundational pieces. Odum leads ASU with 18.9 points and 6.0 assists, while Trouet provides interior stability with 6.1 rebounds per game.
Anthony Johnson, a transfer from NAIA powerhouse University of the Cumberlands, has been a major surprise, averaging 13.8 points and tying Odum for the team lead with 14 steals. Hurley acknowledged that integrating so many newcomers required time but expressed satisfaction with the team’s progress and depth.
ASU’s defensive energy and improved ball movement have elevated their floor. Offensive efficiency increases when Odum dictates pace and creates space for secondary scoring options.
Northern Arizona Outlook
Northern Arizona has shown stretches of strong play despite its 4-4 start. After rebounding with three straight wins following an 84-49 loss to Arizona, the Lumberjacks dropped two competitive games to South Dakota State and North Dakota State. Their latest loss, a 69-68 result in Fargo, ended with a last-second lob attempt to Traivar Jackson that was blocked.
Coach Shane Burcar praised his team’s resiliency and second-half scoring outburst of 46 points against NDSU. Zack Davidson remains the focal point of NAU’s offense, averaging 16.4 points per game. Davidson came off the bench Saturday for the first time this season but still scored a team-high 20 points, potentially signaling rotational tweaks moving forward.
NAU’s offensive strengths include pace changes, efficiency in transition, and versatile scoring from its wings. However, defensive lapses and rebounding inconsistencies present challenges, particularly against a more athletic ASU roster.
Key Matchup Table
| Key Factor | Advantage |
|---|---|
| Guard Play | Arizona State |
| Rebounding Impact | Arizona State |
| Three-Point Variance | Northern Arizona |
| Transition Efficiency | Arizona State |
| Bench Stability | Arizona State |
Betting Trends
Arizona State is 6-3 ATS, covering consistently thanks to improved offensive flow and strong late-game execution. Their totals have skewed slightly over, driven by uptempo play and better perimeter scoring. Northern Arizona is 4-4 ATS and generally competitive as an underdog but has struggled to sustain defensive pressure for full games.
There is limited recent series history, but Arizona State has historically controlled matchups against in-state mid-majors, especially in Tempe. Line movement and projections can be monitored on the ScoresAndStats NCAAB odds page.
The Lean
Arizona State’s depth, ball movement, and defensive intensity provide significant advantages against a Northern Arizona team still searching for late-game composure. If ASU maintains its pace and continues its upward shooting trajectory, the Sun Devils should generate separation early and sustain it through rotations. NAU’s competitive stretches suggest they can score, but defensive mismatches will be difficult to overcome.
Projected Score: Arizona State 84, Northern Arizona 68
Best Bet: Arizona State -14
Total Lean: Under 148
For more Pac-12 and Big Sky previews, explore the ScoresAndStats college basketball preview hub.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Nonconference matchups featuring rebuilt rosters and high-variance mid-majors demand informed evaluation. The ScoresAndStats Handicappers Leaderboard highlights experts who excel in assessing chemistry development, transfer integration, and defensive sustainability. Their models help identify when surging favorites maintain value.
The ScoresAndStats expert betting guide provides frameworks for parsing pace adjustments, scoring volatility, and lineup evolution. Pairing expert insights with team-level analytics strengthens predictive accuracy in December nonconference play.
