Florida International vs UTSA Picks and Predictions – Thursday December 26, 2025

Florida International is in a spot the program hasn’t seen in a while. The Panthers are back in a bowl for the first time in six years, they closed the regular season with four straight wins, and now they get a real chance to put a stamp on Willie Simmons’ first season in Miami. FIU is 7-5, and the upside is obvious. They’re playing loose, the locker room sounds bought in, and they’ve got one of the better bowl-game running backs in the country.

UTSA is 6-6 and feels like a higher-variance team than its reputation suggests. Jeff Traylor’s program is used to bowls and used to winning them, but this season has been inconsistent. Still, the offense can absolutely score with Owen McCown throwing it and Robert Henry Jr. running it. The game is Friday, December 26 at 8:00 PM ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, with ESPN carrying it.

This is basically FIU’s momentum and run game versus UTSA’s passing efficiency and tempo. And because it’s indoors, weather isn’t going to slow anything down. If points are going to be scarce, it’ll be because one team can’t protect or one quarterback isn’t right.

Florida International vs UTSA Odds

These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated college football odds leading into kickoff. Keep checking the latest college football odds as QB health becomes clearer late in the week.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Florida International	+254	+8.5 (-110)	O 59.5 (-110)
UTSA	-320	-8.5 (-110)	U 59.5 (-110)

Florida International Betting Form

FIU’s betting form is momentum and efficiency. The Panthers closed with four straight wins and looked like a team that’s gotten cleaner on offense rather than one that’s hanging on. The 56-16 blowout of Sam Houston is the best example. They ran for 303, threw for 291, protected the ball, and basically turned the second half into a victory lap.

The key is Kejon Owens. He’s the whole engine, and he’s been running like a guy who knows he can decide games by himself. When FIU is good, it’s because Owens keeps them in favorable down and distance, and then the passing game only has to hit what’s there. The concern is at quarterback. Keyone Jenkins and backup Joe Pesansky have both been dealing with injury stuff, and if FIU is not stable at QB, UTSA can crowd the box and make the game uncomfortable.

FIU’s defense is also part of why they’re live. The sacks and interceptions pop on the stat sheet, and that’s the kind of defensive profile that can keep an underdog in the game even if they’re overmatched on paper. For the full season context, the Florida International stats and results page is a quick baseline. Availability matters here, so monitor the Florida International injury report before kickoff, especially if there’s any late clarity about who is actually taking meaningful snaps at QB.

UTSA Betting Form

UTSA has the more reliable passing game, and that’s usually the separator in bowl season. McCown’s season has been productive, and the Tulane game is the proof that the ceiling is high. Completing 31 of 33 and scoring 48 in a high-leverage spot is not something a lot of mid-tier bowl teams can do. When UTSA is clean, it can hit explosives and it can finish drives.

The issue is that UTSA has been inconsistent from week to week, and it’s not always predictable. They lost 27-24 to Army last time out, and that’s the kind of game where you can tell the offense is good but still not always efficient in the moments that matter. If UTSA gets stalled in the red zone or settles for field goals, laying more than a touchdown starts to feel dicey.

The other angle is that UTSA is used to bowls. Six straight appearances, and Traylor has treated these like a real part of the program. That matters when you’re playing a FIU team that’s excited to be here. The better team doesn’t always win the motivation battle in these games. Sometimes the underdog is simply more desperate.

For the season profile and how UTSA has performed in different scripts, the UTSA schedule and stats page is a useful reference. And since injuries can change the whole spread handicap, monitor the UTSA injury report before you lock in anything.

Florida International vs UTSA Matchup Breakdown

This one comes down to pace and early downs. FIU wants to run, control the game with Owens, and keep McCown watching from the sideline. UTSA wants to speed you up with early completions and force you into a scoreboard race. If FIU can get 4 to 6 yards on first down consistently, it can make this game feel tight for four quarters. If FIU is living in second-and-9, it becomes a lot harder to protect the QB and avoid obvious passing situations.

The trenches matchup matters more than usual here because of how each team scores. UTSA’s passing game is efficient, but it’s still dependent on protection holding up long enough for routes to develop. FIU has the sack numbers to suggest it can get pressure. If FIU can win a few pass rush reps and force McCown off platform, that’s where the underdog creates the one turnover or short field that flips the spread.

On the other side, UTSA’s defensive job is pretty clear. Crowd the box and challenge FIU to throw consistently, especially if Jenkins is limited. If FIU can’t threaten vertically, UTSA’s safeties will live at 9 yards and squeeze everything.

Environment is a big piece too. Gerald J. Ford Stadium is a controlled indoor setup, so wind and weather are not part of the handicap. That usually helps passing efficiency, helps kickers, and tends to reduce the random swings you get in outdoor bowls. It also means totals are more likely to be decided by tempo and finishing drives than by a couple missed kicks.

If you want a framework for bowl handicapping when health and motivation matter more than the numbers, the college football betting guide is useful. The broader sports betting strategy guide also helps when you’re deciding whether to play the spread, the total, or pass because the price is doing too much work.

Florida International vs UTSA Predictions and Best Bets

I lean FIU +8.5. Part of it is the momentum angle, but it’s mostly about how FIU is built to stay in games. They can run the ball, they can create defensive disruption, and they don’t need to be perfect to cover more than a touchdown. UTSA is the better team in the power-rating sense, but UTSA also has a history this season of playing games that don’t separate until late.

The one thing that could flip me is quarterback health for FIU. If the passing game is compromised and UTSA can stack the box without being punished, the underdog path gets narrow fast. Still, even a limited FIU offense can hang around if Owens is rolling and the defense hits a couple negative plays.

On the total, I lean over 59.5, mostly because the environment is indoor and UTSA’s offense can push the game into the 30s. FIU can contribute too if Owens breaks a couple runs and UTSA’s defense is forced to tackle in space. It’s not a perfect over setup because FIU might want to slow it down, but the number is telling you UTSA will create possessions, and I don’t totally disagree.

Best Bet: Florida International +8.5 (-110).

NCAAF Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats

Bowl season is where you find out quickly whether you’re reading the market well. Motivation, opt-outs, and late injury news can swing numbers, and it helps to compare multiple expert perspectives instead of trusting one angle. A good place to start is today’s college football picks, especially if you’re playing several bowls and want to see where experts are lining up.

It also helps to know who has actually produced over time. The top sports handicappers page makes it easier to compare different styles, and the handicapper leaderboard keeps everything transparent when you’re deciding who to follow.

If you want a higher-volume approach during bowl week, premium picks can be a better fit than trying to chase every late update yourself. And if you’re comparing services across the industry, handicapper site reviews is worth reading before you commit money anywhere. For more bowl-by-bowl coverage, the NCAAF previews hub keeps the full slate organized.

Projected Final Score: UTSA 31, Florida International 27
Best Spread Pick: Florida International +8.5 (-110)
Total Lean: Over 59.5 (-110)