San Diego State vs North Texas Picks and Predictions – Thursday December 27, 2025

No. 25 North Texas walks into Albuquerque with a season the program has never really had before. The Mean Green are 11-2, put up video game offensive numbers, and still feel like they left something on the table after losing 34-21 to Tulane in the AAC title game. Now they get the New Mexico Bowl, and they also get the weird part: North Texas has dropped seven straight bowls since its last win after the 2013 season.

San Diego State is a very different kind of problem. The Aztecs are 9-3 and built around a defense that strangles games. They were one tiebreaker away from the Mountain West title game, and they’re the type of opponent that can make an explosive offense look impatient. Kickoff is Saturday, December 27 at 5:45 PM ET at University Stadium in Albuquerque, with ESPN carrying it.

This is also a bowl that has real personnel and coaching context. North Texas is playing under interim coach Drew Svoboda after Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State. San Diego State is without starting quarterback Jayden Denegal after shoulder surgery. So you’ve got one side trying to keep an elite offense humming through a transition, and the other trying to win with defense and a backup quarterback in a tough environment.

San Diego State vs North Texas Odds

These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated college football odds as kickoff gets closer. Keep tracking the latest college football odds in case the market reacts to QB clarity and late roster news.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
San Diego State	+138	+3.5 (-113)	O 56.0 (-110)
North Texas	-166	-3.5 (-108)	U 56.0 (-110)

San Diego State Betting Form

San Diego State’s form is basically defense-first, control-second, and then hope the offense does not wreck the plan. The 23-17 double-overtime loss at New Mexico is a good example. The Aztecs were physical enough to hang in, but they also showed how thin the margin gets when you cannot create easy scores. And now the offense takes a real hit with Denegal out. If the backup is limited or the playbook gets condensed, that matters a lot against a team that forces you to score to keep up.

The way the Aztecs cover spreads is by dragging opponents into longer drives and harder third downs. They rank among the best units nationally in scoring defense and pass efficiency defense, and they tend to avoid the busted-coverage touchdowns that flip totals by themselves. Their best angle here is to tackle in space, limit yards after catch, and force North Texas to drive 12 plays instead of scoring in four.

If you want the season profile and how they’ve gotten here, the San Diego State stats and results page helps frame it. Availability matters here, so monitor the San Diego State injury report before kickoff, especially since QB and skill position availability is the whole handicap.

North Texas Betting Form

North Texas is the opposite. The Mean Green want the game to feel fast, wide, and stressful. They finished the season first nationally in scoring offense and total offense, and they’ve lived on explosive passing with Drew Mestemaker throwing for over 4,100 yards. Even in the AAC title game loss, the offense still moved the ball. The question is whether they can stay disciplined when San Diego State takes away the first read and forces them to win the boring way.

The other piece is emotional. North Texas is coming off a championship loss and a head coach departure, and bowls can get weird when a team is processing both. The early signal from the interim staff is that the group is locked in, but bettors have to decide whether that’s real or whether the first stalled drive brings back the frustration. And the bowl jinx is real in the sense that once you lose a few of these, the pressure gets loud.

From a betting lens, North Texas has been priced like a team that scores into the 30s without much help. If they get there, laying 3.5 looks fine. If San Diego State turns it into a low-possession, field-position game, it gets dicey. For the baseline on their offense and recent results, the North Texas schedule and stats page is the quick check. Availability matters too, so monitor the North Texas injury report before kickoff, particularly the backfield and offensive line.

San Diego State vs North Texas Matchup Breakdown

This matchup is a clash of stress points. North Texas wants space and tempo. San Diego State wants leverage and patience. The biggest question is whether the Aztecs can actually disrupt the pocket without compromising coverage. If they can pressure with four and keep two safeties involved, that’s how you keep an explosive passing game from turning into 21 points in a blink.

On the other side, San Diego State’s offense has to find a way to stay on the field. Even a great defense eventually breaks if it keeps defending short fields. With Denegal out, I expect the Aztecs to lean on the run game and short throws, then hope they can win with field position and red zone defense. That approach can cover +3.5, but it puts a lot of weight on not turning the ball over, especially against a North Texas defense that can hunt mistakes when it knows the opponent has to throw.

The environment is a real angle in Albuquerque. University Stadium sits at altitude, and the air is thinner than what both teams are used to week to week. That can impact the kicking game, and it can also make deep balls and long field goals more live than you’d expect. Weather looks manageable for late December, around the upper 50s at kickoff with no obvious wind issues. That typically helps the offense and helps kickers. If you’re leaning under, it has to be because of matchup and pace, not conditions.

For bettors who want to sharpen how to handle bowl variables like coaching changes and QB availability, the college football betting guide is a useful framework. The broader sports betting strategy guide also helps with price discipline when the market starts reacting to late news.

San Diego State vs North Texas Predictions and Best Bets

I lean North Texas -3.5, but it’s not a blind offense bet. It’s more about game math. San Diego State’s defense is good enough to keep this uncomfortable, but their offense is walking in with a backup QB and likely a conservative plan. That’s a tough way to live when the opponent can score quickly and force you out of your script. If North Texas gets even a small early lead, San Diego State has to open up, and that’s where mistakes show up.

The total is the more interesting decision. A number like 56 implies the market is balancing North Texas’ ceiling with San Diego State’s ability to slow things down. I think the under is tempting because the Aztecs can absolutely force long drives and limit explosives. But I also think the altitude and decent weather keep the over in play, and North Texas can create short fields if San Diego State’s QB situation leads to turnovers. The way this gets to the mid 50s is not necessarily sustained offense. It’s a couple of sudden-change scores, or one team breaking a few tackles and flipping field position.

So I’m leaning North Texas on the spread, and I’m slightly leaning over 56.0 even though it feels uncomfortable. I think North Texas gets into the low 30s, and then you only need San Diego State to scrape into the mid 20s with a few chunk runs, a couple of field goals, and maybe one short field.

Best Bet: North Texas -3.5 (-108).

NCAAF Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats

Bowl betting is a volume game for a lot of bettors. You’re not only picking winners. You’re shopping numbers, tracking availability, and deciding which news matters and which is noise. If you want to compare multiple opinions on the full slate, today’s college football picks is a clean way to see what different handicappers are doing with sides and totals.

Transparency matters even more in bowls because the narratives get loud. The top sports handicappers page makes it easier to find analysts with consistent results, and the handicapper leaderboard lets you track performance without guessing who is actually profitable.

If you prefer packaged volume during bowl season, premium picks can be a better fit than forcing action into thin edges. And if you’re comparing different services across the industry, handicapper site reviews is worth reading before you commit. For more matchup coverage across the postseason board, the NCAAF previews hub keeps everything organized.

Projected Final Score: North Texas 34, San Diego State 24
Best Spread Pick: North Texas -3.5 (-108)
Total Lean: Over 56.0 (-110)