Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions December 28th 2025

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

Tampa Bay enters Week 17 with its playoff streak on the line. The Buccaneers have dropped six of seven and sit at 7-8, needing a road win to keep their NFC South hopes alive before a potential Week 18 title matchup with Carolina. The offense has regained key players, but execution issues remain. Tampa Bay’s past three losses came by a combined 11 points, highlighting late-game inefficiency and red-zone inconsistency. Baker Mayfield’s final-drive interception last week sealed a 23-20 loss to Carolina, continuing a stretch where Tampa Bay has struggled to convert possessions into touchdowns.

Miami plays spoiler at 6-9 while also evaluating its long-term direction at quarterback. The Dolphins started rookie Quinn Ewers last week after benching Tua Tagovailoa. Ewers showed early rhythm but finished with two interceptions and no touchdowns. Defensively, Miami has regressed sharply. After a strong four-game stretch earlier in the year, the Dolphins have allowed 73 points over their last two games and surrendered touchdowns on eight of their last 11 defensive series. Their inability to stop second-half surges has shaped multiple losses.

Both teams enter with urgency, but for different reasons: Tampa Bay fights for survival, while Miami evaluates and attempts to stabilize defensive structure.

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Line Movement and Odds

Tampa Bay opened as a road favorite at -2.5, driven by the playoff stakes and Miami’s recent defensive collapse. Miami sits +2.5 as uncertainty around Ewers and their offensive line affects market confidence.

The total opened 43 and has held steady. Cold temperatures and wind are not factors, increasing potential for offensive rhythm.

Monitor updated movements on the NFL odds board.

Matchup Breakdown

Tampa Bay must create cleaner offensive sequencing. Mayfield has managed shoulder discomfort, and the offense struggles when forced into must-pass situations. Bucky Irving’s return has added stability, but penalties and red-zone stalls continue to undercut scoring. Defensively, Tampa Bay needs to limit explosive plays and return to its early-season takeaway rate. The Bucs have played in close contests throughout their slide, but situational issues have been costly.

The Dolphins rely heavily on Ewers’ growth in controlled situations. McDaniel highlighted improvements in command and timing, though decision-making remains inconsistent. Miami’s defense is the critical variable. Their past two losses featured extended touchdown runs by opposing offenses, highlighting communication lapses and breakdowns in second-half adjustments. If the Dolphins cannot stabilize defensively, scoring pressure shifts entirely onto their rookie quarterback.

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Injuries and Conditions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony Nelson, knee, out
Tristan Wirfs, toe, out
Devin Culp, illness, limited
Chris Godwin, fibula, limited
Luke Goedeke, ankle, limited
Lavonte David, rest, limited
Calijah Kancey, pectoral, limited (IR return window opened)

Complete depth information available on the Buccaneers team page.

Miami Dolphins

Aaron Brewer, neck, out
Tyrel Dodson, chest, out
Dee Eskridge, toe, out
Minkah Fitzpatrick, calf, out
Darren Waller, groin/rest, out
Isaiah Johnson, knee, limited
Benito Jones, back, limited
Jason Sanders, hip, limited

Outdoor venue, warm conditions with light breeze.

Latest Betting Trends

Buccaneers last 7 games: 1-6 SU
Buccaneers last 3 losses: all by 4 points or fewer
Dolphins last 5 home games: 3-2 O/U
Dolphins last 2 games allowed: 73 points
Buccaneers O/U after loss: 4-2
Dolphins ATS last 4: 1-3

Study additional angles inside the Expert Betting Guide.

Best Bets and Prediction

Tampa Bay maintains a more stable offensive profile and enters with clear playoff urgency. Miami’s defensive regression and Ewers’ inconsistency create volatility, but the Bucs project to control possession and generate more reliable red-zone opportunities.

Projected Score: Buccaneers 23, Dolphins 20
Best Bet: Buccaneers -2.5
Secondary Lean: Under 43

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