Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Picks and Predictions December 28th 2025

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Betting Preview

Two playoff teams meet Sunday in Orchard Park with contrasting motivations and styles. Buffalo enters at 11-4, one game behind New England in the AFC East and still in position to win a sixth straight division title. The Bills have won four straight but remain vulnerable against the run, ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing defense and allowing 5.4 yards per carry.

The Eagles arrive at 10-5 as NFC East champions. Their resurgent ground attack has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over the past three weeks, powered by Saquon Barkley’s return to form. Philadelphia has little room to climb the playoff ladder but remains intent on sharpening execution, and Nick Sirianni confirmed no starters will be rested.

Cold temperatures and possible precipitation reinforce the matchup dynamics: Philadelphia wants to control pace through Barkley and long possessions, while Buffalo looks to counter with scoring efficiency and pressure from Josh Allen. James Cook, the league’s rushing leader, remains central to Buffalo’s offensive stability.

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Line Movement and Odds

Projected Market Consensus

Buffalo opened -3 and has drifted to -3.5 with early support tied to home performance and offensive balance. Philadelphia is +3.5 amid skepticism about their secondary and pass-rush consistency.

The total opened 47 and has inched to 47.5. Weather risk tempers upward movement, but both teams support multi-score surges. Track adjustments through the NFL odds board.

Matchup Breakdown

Philadelphia’s offense leans on Barkley’s efficiency and a structured ground game that elevates time of possession. Their goal is straightforward: keep Allen and Cook off the field. Success requires controlling interior blocking, limiting negative runs and maintaining drive integrity. If they win early downs, they can dictate game rhythm.

The Bills counter with a fast-start approach and rely heavily on Allen’s creation ability. Cook’s burst and lateral quickness create matchup problems even for disciplined fronts. Defensively, Buffalo must tighten run fits and generate stops before Philadelphia reaches tempo. If the Bills limit Barkley’s chunk gains, their offensive ceiling becomes decisive.

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Key Information

Sport: NFL
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Broadcast: FOX

Betting Odds (Projected Consensus)

Bills Moneyline: -180
Eagles Moneyline: +150
Bills Spread: -3.5 (-110)
Eagles Spread: +3.5 (-110)
Total: 47.5 (O/U -110)

The Eagles Can Win If…

Philadelphia sustains its ground identity and creates manageable third downs. Barkley has topped 330 rushing yards over three games, and extending that form is their clearest path. Ball control limits Buffalo’s tempo and keeps Cook from dictating pace. Defensively, the Eagles must compress Allen’s scramble lanes and avoid explosive breakdowns. If they force Buffalo into forced intermediate throws, they can tilt the game toward low-variance possessions.

Eagles Injury Report (Projected)

Lane Johnson, foot, out
Landon Dickerson, illness, questionable
Nakobe Dean, hamstring, out
A.J. Brown, dental procedure, questionable
Jalen Carter, shoulders, probable

Full depth notes available on the Eagles team page.

The Bills Can Win If…

Buffalo improves interior run defense and forces the game into Allen’s hands in favorable script. Containing Barkley early prevents extended drives. Offensively, Buffalo must leverage Cook’s burst and exploit Philadelphia’s coverage gaps. Red-zone execution is vital given the weather profile. If the Bills strike first and maintain tempo, they hold structural advantage at home.

Bills Injury Report (Projected)

Josh Allen, foot, probable
Joey Bosa, hamstring, out
DaQuan Jones, calf, out
Jordan Phillips, ankle, questionable
Dalton Kincaid, knee, questionable
Dawson Knox, knee, questionable
Jordan Poyer, hamstring, questionable
Matt Prater, quad, questionable

Latest Betting Trends (Modeled)

Bills SU last 7 home games: 6-1
Bills O/U last 6 home games: 4-2
Eagles ATS last 5 road games: 3-2
Eagles O/U last 6 games: 3-3
Bills SU last 4 games: 4-0
Eagles SU last 5 games: 3-2

Further matchup insights available in the Expert Betting Guide.

Best Bets and Prediction

Philadelphia’s ground game gives them a clear identity, but Buffalo’s offensive balance and home performance carry weight. Weather supports the Eagles’ approach, yet Buffalo’s scoring versatility provides late-game separation.

Projected Score: Bills 26, Eagles 21
Best Bet: Bills -3.5
Secondary Lean: Under 47.5

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