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North Texas heads to FedExForum to face Memphis on Wednesday, December 31, 2025 at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN2. This is an AAC conference game with a weird profile. North Texas is 9-4 and has looked like the more reliable team overall, but they have been noticeably less comfortable away from home (2-3). Memphis is 5-7, yet they’re laying a big number at home because the market is pricing their athletic ceiling and the way this matchup can get ugly if North Texas can’t score.
The total at 133.5 tells you what kind of game is expected: slower, more half-court, and probably a lot of empty possessions. That makes +10.5 interesting, but it also raises the risk of a favorite cover if the underdog hits a five-minute drought. If North Texas goes cold, Memphis can win this by margin without even playing a “good” offensive game.
North Texas Mean Green vs Memphis Tigers Odds
These are the current betting lines, but you should always monitor updated numbers before tip. You can track the latest college basketball odds on the latest NCAAB odds board.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas Mean Green | +451 | +10.5 (-110) | O 133.5 |
| Memphis Tigers | -683 | -10.5 (-115) | U 133.5 |
North Texas Mean Green Betting Form
North Texas is coming off a 109-56 win, and yes, the opponent level matters, but it still helps to see the offense flow. When this team is right, it plays controlled basketball, takes decent shots, and creates turnovers defensively to steal a handful of easy points. The steals number (9.4 per game) is a real part of their identity, and it matters in a game with a low total because a couple live-ball takeaways can swing both the spread and the tempo.
The concern is road offense. North Texas averages 71.5 points per game, but this matchup sets up to be more physical and more defensive than what they just played. If they’re not generating clean looks early, they can drift into long possessions that end in contested twos. That’s how underdogs lose by 14 in a game that felt competitive for 28 minutes.
North Texas injury report
| Player | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Will McClendon | Out | Leg injury, expected to miss the season |
Memphis Tigers Betting Form
Memphis is tricky because the record is disappointing, but the home environment and athletic advantage still show up in spots. They just beat Alabama State 88-67, shot the ball well, and looked more like a team that can dictate terms. They also play with pace more than the total suggests, which is important. If Memphis is getting stops and running, this game can jump out of the 60s quickly.
The spread is big because Memphis has more ways to create separation. They can win the turnover battle, they can pressure the ball into bad shots, and they can stack runs when the opponent’s offense gets predictable. The only thing that keeps a number like -10.5 from being automatic is consistency. Memphis has not been the kind of team you blindly trust to play clean for 40 minutes.
Memphis injury report
| Player | Status | Note |
|---|---|---|
| None reported | N/A | No confirmed injuries listed as of game day |
North Texas Mean Green vs Memphis Tigers Matchup Breakdown
The style clash is the handicap. North Texas wants the game to be organized, possessions to be valued, and shot quality to matter. Memphis wants chaos. Pressure defense, runouts, and a pace spike that forces the opponent to play faster than they want. With the total sitting at 133.5, oddsmakers are basically betting North Texas has some success slowing things down, at least early.
The biggest swing factor is scoring efficiency under pressure. If North Texas handles the ball and gets into their offense, +10.5 is live because the game stays in that 64-58 type range. If Memphis turns a few early possessions into points off turnovers, now North Texas is chasing, and their offense isn’t really built to play catch-up fast.
Rebounding and free throws matter too. In low-total games, it’s usually the small stuff that decides covers: second-chance points, a couple extra trips to the line, and whether the underdog can score when the favorite goes to the bench. If Memphis is controlling the glass and getting to the stripe, you can see a comfortable double-digit win even if the shooting is just average.
North Texas Mean Green vs Memphis Tigers Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is North Texas +10.5. The total is the biggest reason. When the market is telling you this is a 133.5-point game, grabbing double digits becomes more valuable because there are fewer possessions for the favorite to separate. If North Texas plays the game it wants, Memphis is going to have to earn margin in the half-court, and that’s not always where big spreads cash cleanly.
The total is more delicate. Memphis has the ability to speed the game up, but North Texas has every incentive to slow it down and protect the ball. If North Texas is even moderately efficient, you can land near the mid-130s without much stress. If the Mean Green go through one of those brutal scoring stretches and Memphis turns it into transition points, the over can sneak in. I still lean slightly to the under because North Texas’ preferred script is the more likely one.
Best Bet: North Texas Mean Green +10.5 (-110).
College Basketball Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re betting college hoops daily, you need range. Different conferences, different tempos, and a lot of spots where the market is just a step slow. The best starting point is today’s college basketball picks so you can compare games and avoid forcing action into one matchup.
If you want accountability, use performance tracking. The top sports handicappers page helps you find consistent long-term profiles, while the handicapper leaderboard lets you check volume, recent form, and transparency in one place. And if you prefer a curated menu instead of building your card from scratch, buy expert picks is where the premium selections live.
