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Lumberjacks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions – Thursday January 1, 2026
Northern Arizona heads to Missoula for a Big Sky matchup with Montana on Thursday night at Dahlberg Arena, with tip set for 6:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Both teams are 6-7 overall, but the market is leaning strongly toward the home side, and it makes sense when you look at the situational split. Northern Arizona is 0-5 away from home, while Montana has been more stable at Dahlberg and generally plays with more offensive control in this building.
The total is sitting in the high 140s, which is a fair number for two teams that can shoot, but it also leaves room for a faster game if the threes come early. The betting decision comes down to how much you trust Northern Arizona’s perimeter shooting to travel, and whether Montana’s efficiency shows up after a rough recent loss.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Montana Grizzlies Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should monitor the latest college basketball odds as tip approaches.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | +220 | +6.5 (-110) | 148.5 (-112) |
| Montana Grizzlies | -285 | -6.5 (-115) | 148.5 (-112) |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Betting Form
Northern Arizona’s profile is pretty clear. They can score when the jumpers are falling, and they have enough shooting across the rotation to keep defenses honest. They just hung 112 points on Benedictine Mesa while shooting 58.7% from the field, and that type of performance is why they’re live as an underdog when the price is not inflated.
The season-long numbers back up the perimeter angle. Northern Arizona is hitting 37.9% from three, which is top-60 nationally, and they have multiple rotation players sitting above the 39% mark. That matters against a Montana defense that would rather stay attached and force you into tougher twos. If the Lumberjacks are getting clean looks early and not coughing up live-ball turnovers, +6.5 is very playable.
Still, the road split is the problem. An 0-5 away record is not just bad luck, it usually shows up in shot quality and defensive communication. If this turns into a stretch where the threes are contested and the misses start piling up, the cover becomes fragile fast. For a quick view of recent results and trends, use the Northern Arizona stats and results.
Montana Grizzlies Betting Form
Montana is coming off a rough game, losing 94-54 to Louisville, but the bigger picture is that the offense is usually efficient. The Grizzlies are scoring 80.9 points per game and shooting 49.2% from the field, which is top-50 nationally. That efficiency matters in a spread range like -6.5 because you don’t need a perfect defensive performance to separate.
At home, Montana tends to play more comfortably with their spacing and shot selection. The 4-4 record at Dahlberg is not dominant, but the ceiling is clear when they’re facing teams that can’t keep up physically or can’t defend in rotation. If Montana is getting good looks at the rim and turning Northern Arizona’s misses into transition, this is the type of matchup where the favorite can build a margin without needing to be hot from three.
The other point that matters is shot volume. If Northern Arizona is living behind the arc, Montana just needs to keep them off the line enough that the math swings back. You can live with a few makes, but you can’t give up repeated uncontested threes and expect to cover.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Montana Grizzlies Matchup Breakdown
This game is a clean clash of styles, even though the records are identical. Northern Arizona wants a three-point game. They have shooters who can swing a spread in six minutes, and they do not need to win inside to stay close. Montana wants an efficiency game. If they are getting high-percentage twos, forcing Northern Arizona into tougher jumpers, and keeping the defensive glass clean, the edge starts to compound.
The total is interesting because both teams can score, but the pacing can vary depending on game state. If Montana gets out early, Northern Arizona will lean harder on quick threes, which can raise both variance and tempo. If it stays tight and both teams run half-court sets, the game can slow enough that 148.5 becomes a tougher clear. End-game fouling can also swing it, especially if Northern Arizona is hanging around inside two possessions.
One angle I like in this range is thinking about how the game ends. If Montana is up 6-10 late, they can still cover with a clean final two minutes because Northern Arizona’s shot profile can produce empty possessions quickly. If Northern Arizona is up or it’s tied late, that favors the underdog ticket because the possessions get tighter and every make matters.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Montana Grizzlies Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Montana -6.5. The road split is hard to ignore, and Montana’s ability to score efficiently should show up at home against a defense that has struggled to travel. If Montana is getting consistent paint touches and not giving away transition points, they can cover this number without needing to win the three-point battle outright.
On the total, I lean over 148.5. Northern Arizona’s shooting creates volatility, and Montana’s offense can score in bunches when they’re not stuck taking contested jumpers. The number is not cheap, but the game script that supports Montana covering also supports possessions and quick shots late, especially if Northern Arizona is chasing.
If you want one clean pregame position, I’d rather tie my strongest opinion to the side than the total, because the pace can drift. Montana’s efficiency plus Northern Arizona’s road issues is the cleaner story.
Best Bet: Montana Grizzlies -6.5 (-115)
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
For more college hoops coverage, the college basketball picks page is a strong starting point, and the NCAAB previews hub helps you compare matchups quickly as lines move.
If you want to track who is beating closing numbers over time, check the best handicappers list and validate current form on the leaderboard. For packaged plays, you can browse options on buy picks.
When you’re jumping between teams and conference slates, the NCAAB teams hub is the fastest way to move around the site, and the ScoresAndStats blog is useful when you want broader angles and betting concepts during conference play. If you’re comparing where to place wagers, the sportsbook reviews section plus the handicappers sites reviews page can help you evaluate options.
