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Lightning vs Penguins Picks and Predictions – Tuesday January 13, 2026
Tampa Bay brings a 10-game heater into Pittsburgh, and the form is real. They’re rolling teams with pace, layered offense, and a power play that’s punishing every mistake. The Penguins are coming off a six-game win streak that was built on defense and goaltending, but the offense has dried up in back-to-back losses.
This is a clean handicap: Tampa is the hotter, more complete team right now, but they’re also on the road in a fatigue spot after playing Monday. Pittsburgh is at home and has been defending well enough to hang in most games. The question is whether the Penguins can create enough to actually win it, or if this turns into another night where they need everything to be perfect just to score two.
The injury angle matters too. Tampa’s Brayden Point left Monday after an awkward knee hit, and his status is unclear. If he’s out or limited, Tampa can still win, but it changes how I want to attack the side and the total.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Odds
These are the current lines, and bettors should keep monitoring updated NHL odds as goalie confirmations and late injury news hit closer to puck drop.
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -133 | -1.5 (+182) | 6.0 (O -110 / U -110) |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +110 | +1.5 (-228) | 6.0 (O -110 / U -110) |
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Form
Tampa’s streak is the kind you don’t overthink. They’re scoring in bunches, they’re getting production from their top-end talent, and they’re finishing possessions with shots that actually threaten. The 5v5 game has been direct, and when opponents open up even a little, Tampa turns it into odd-man looks and high-danger chances.
The betting hinge is availability down the middle. If Point can’t go, Tampa’s top line gets reshuffled, and that can reduce their clean entries and power-play rhythm. It doesn’t erase the edge, but it tightens the margin and makes the moneyline more appealing than the puck line. Also note the schedule: Tampa played Monday, so this is a road back-to-back, and teams can lose some pop in the third when legs start to go.
For current trends, matchup splits, and recent results, use the Tampa Bay Lightning stats and results. For availability, keep the linked Tampa Bay Lightning injury report open because this handicap changes quickly if key forwards are ruled out.
Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Form
Pittsburgh’s recent results have been carried by goaltending and structure. Since the holiday break, the defensive detail has been good enough to win most nights, and they’ve gotten sharp play in net, especially in Stuart Skinner’s better stretch after the trade. That’s the reason the Penguins stabilized, and it’s also why they can be competitive here even if the offense isn’t humming.
The issue is the scoring has stalled. When your margin depends on winning 2-1 games, every empty power play and every missed rebound becomes a problem. Pittsburgh can absolutely drag this into a tight contest, but it requires them to stay connected in the neutral zone and avoid giving Tampa clean transition lanes.
If you want to track their recent offensive output and situational performance, use the Pittsburgh Penguins schedule and stats, and check the linked Pittsburgh Penguins injury report before betting, especially if there are any late lineup scratches that thin out an already-limited scoring group.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Matchup Breakdown
This is a game-state battle at PPG Paints Arena. Pittsburgh wants it controlled, low event, and played mostly along the walls. Tampa wants pace through the middle, fast support, and the kind of sequences where Pittsburgh’s defense has to turn twice and chase skill. The team that gets the first real lead has a major advantage.
At five-on-five, the Lightning’s biggest edge is how quickly they convert loose pucks into chances. If Pittsburgh is slow on exits or loses a couple of neutral-zone decisions, Tampa can tilt the ice in a hurry. The Penguins’ counter is their goaltending and their ability to keep the slot clean. If Skinner starts and is on, Pittsburgh can keep this within a goal deep into the third.
Special teams is the swing factor. Tampa’s power play has been cashing, and Pittsburgh can’t afford a sloppy, penalty-heavy game. If the Penguins take three or more minors, the math starts to favor Tampa pulling away. If penalties stay limited, Pittsburgh’s +1.5 becomes more live, even if they’re not driving offense.
Goaltending is still a key unknown. Pittsburgh could go Skinner or Silovs, and Tampa may manage its crease on a back-to-back. If you’re betting early, you’re taking that uncertainty. If you’re waiting, goalie confirmation is the most important piece of timing value on this matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Tampa, but I’m not paying for the puck line. Pittsburgh’s defense and recent net play give them a path to keep this tight, and Tampa’s fatigue spot plus the Point uncertainty adds enough variance that I want the cleaner exposure.
The Lightning moneyline is the best way to play the edge. Tampa is simply generating more consistent offense right now, and Pittsburgh has been relying on low-scoring scripts that are hard to repeat against a team this dangerous on special teams. Even if Pittsburgh is competitive for 40 minutes, Tampa has enough scoring punch to win the last 20.
On the total, 6.0 is the right number, and I’m not forcing it. If Point is out and Pittsburgh starts Skinner, the under starts to look better. If Tampa’s power play keeps rolling and Pittsburgh takes penalties, the over is very live. Without confirmed lineups and goalies, I’d rather stay on the side.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-133)
NHL Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re playing more than one game tonight, the NHL picks page is the quickest way to compare sides and totals across similar spots like back-to-backs, travel, and rest edges.
If you want to follow bettors who are actually beating the market, the best handicappers hub and the live handicapper leaderboard make it easy to track performance. For premium cards and packaged plays, you can access options through buy picks, and if you’re looking for more matchup writeups, the NHL previews hub keeps the slate organized. If you want a fundamentals refresher for sides, totals, and puck lines, the NHL betting guide is a solid baseline, and the Stanley Cup betting guide is useful for thinking about how game state and tighter checking change scoring environments.
