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Northern Arizona visits Portland State on Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET at Viking Pavilion in Portland, Oregon. This Big Sky matchup will be available on ESPN+. Portland State enters 10-5 overall and has been strong at home at 6-1, while Northern Arizona is 6-12 and still looking for its first true road win at 0-8.
Portland State is favored by 11.5 points, which is a big number for a conference game, but it makes sense when you layer in the splits: Vikings reliable at home, Lumberjacks still searching away. The total is 141.5, and the pace and shot profile hints matter here because Northern Arizona’s clearest path to staying close is making threes and avoiding long empty stretches.
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Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Portland State Vikings Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated college basketball odds. Keep an eye on the latest college basketball odds leading up to tipoff for any movement.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | N/A | +11.5 (-107) | O 141.5 |
| Portland State Vikings | N/A | -11.5 (-118) | U 141.5 |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Betting Form
Northern Arizona is coming off an 83-69 loss to Sacramento State, and the result fits the season theme: they can score in pockets, but they struggle to stack stops long enough to keep games from drifting. Traivar Jackson’s 18 points and nine rebounds stood out, and the 44.8% shooting in that game is at least a reminder they can generate decent looks when the offense is flowing.
The betting case for Northern Arizona is mostly about shooting variance. A 36.4% three-point clip is a real weapon, and it’s the kind of skill that can keep a double-digit dog alive on the road if they start well. They also shoot 46.5% overall, so they are not a team that needs to play hero ball every trip. The problem is the travel profile. An 0-8 road record tells you they’ve had issues handling runs, and that’s dangerous against a home favorite that can score quickly.
Portland State Vikings Betting Form
Portland State is coming off a 76-73 win over Northern Colorado, and that’s the kind of game that tends to translate to conference success: win the close ones, stay composed late, and get enough creation from the lead guards. Jaylin Henderson’s 19 points and seven assists drove the offense, and Tre-Vaughn Minott’s efficiency and rebounding presence are a steadying force in games that get choppy.
The home split is the headline. At 6-1 in Viking Pavilion, Portland State has played with better pace control and cleaner spacing, and their 48.4% field goal percentage backs that up. They average 82.8 points per game, and when they are making shots at home, spreads like this become more about whether the opponent can keep up offensively for 40 minutes. Against a road team that has struggled to sustain play, that’s a real edge.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Portland State Vikings Matchup Breakdown
This matchup starts with shot profile. Northern Arizona can stay close if the threes are falling, because that’s the quickest way to erase a gap without needing a perfect defensive game. Portland State, on the other hand, is more likely to win by consistently creating good twos, staying efficient overall, and forcing Northern Arizona to defend for full possessions. If Portland State is getting clean looks early, the game can stretch fast, and that’s where a road team with an 0-8 mark tends to unravel.
The second key is the turnover and run-out battle. Northern Arizona’s worst outcomes usually happen when they give away empty possessions and the opponent turns it into easy points. Portland State doesn’t need to gamble defensively to cover 11.5. They just need steady shot quality, a few transition chances, and enough stops to force Northern Arizona into rushed threes instead of rhythm threes.
The total is tricky. Portland State’s offense suggests points, but Northern Arizona’s road struggles can cut both ways. Sometimes that creates a low-scoring game because the underdog can’t convert. Other times it creates a higher total because the favorite is scoring efficiently and the underdog is forced into quicker shots late to chase.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Portland State Vikings Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Northern Arizona +11.5. It’s not comfortable backing an 0-8 road team, but the number is big enough that you don’t need a great overall performance. You need a decent shooting night from three, reasonable shot selection, and just enough resistance to avoid the back-breaking 12-0 type of run that turns a competitive game into a blowout. If Northern Arizona hits its normal range from deep, they can hang around even if Portland State is the better team.
I’m less interested in trying to get cute beyond the spread. Without a moneyline price in front of us, I’m not chasing an upset angle. Portland State’s home profile is strong, and they’re capable of winning comfortably if they’re efficient early.
For the total, I lean Over 141.5. Portland State’s scoring output at home makes it easier for this game to get into the mid-140s, and Northern Arizona’s best path to covering is also offense driven, mostly through threes. The over risk is the obvious one: if Northern Arizona’s road offense stalls, you can end up needing Portland State to do most of the work.
Best Bet: Northern Arizona +11.5 (-107).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Conference schedules are where bettors can find value by leaning into home-road splits, shot profile, and how teams win possessions, not just overall record. Big Sky games in particular can swing hard based on early shooting and whether the underdog can avoid turnover runs.
For more plays across the slate, today’s college basketball picks are the quickest way to compare sides and totals and see where the strongest leans are landing. If you want a broader framework for evaluating pace, efficiency, and closing-game dynamics, the sports betting strategy guide is a useful supplement when you’re building out a card.
