Missouri State Bears vs New Mexico State Aggies Picks and Predictions January 22nd 2026

Missouri State Bears vs New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

The Missouri State Bears look to overcome their road struggles, while the New Mexico State Aggies aim to protect their home floor in this Conference USA clash at the Pan American Center.

Line Movement and Odds

New Mexico State enters as the favorite, but Missouri State’s scoring depth makes this line worth watching. Current market:

• Missouri State Spread: +5.5 (-112)
• New Mexico State Spread: -5.5 (-113)
• Missouri State MoneyLine: +200
• New Mexico State MoneyLine: -262
• Total: 143.5 (-110)

Check the College Basketball Odds page for live updates and sharper angles before tip-off.

Matchup Breakdown

Missouri State Outlook

The Bears average 75.9 points per game, with Keith Palek III, Michael Osei-Bonsu, and Kobi Williams leading the offense. Palek’s 20 points vs Middle Tennessee highlighted his consistency, while Osei-Bonsu’s scoring versatility showcased his impact. Missouri State’s efficiency (24.7 free throw attempts per game, 49th nationally; 10-8 overall record) underscores their strengths. Their 1-6 road mark remains a concern, but their ability to keep games close makes them a dangerous underdog.

New Mexico State Outlook

The Aggies average 77.2 points per game, with Jemel Jones, Julius Mims, and Xavier Pinson driving production. Jones’ 19 points vs Delaware highlighted his consistency, while Mims’ double-double showcased his rebounding presence. New Mexico State’s efficiency (57.1% FG vs Delaware; 37.7 rebounds per game; 7-2 home record) underscores their strengths. Their 10-7 record and ability to dominate at the Pan American Center highlight resilience, making them tough at home.

Key Factors

This matchup may hinge on free throws and rebounding. Missouri State thrives on drawing fouls and converting at the line, while New Mexico State must rely on Jones’ offensive firepower and home-court energy to tilt the game. Execution in the final minutes will likely decide the margin.

Injuries / Availability

Missouri State: The Bears report no fresh injury concerns heading into Thursday’s contest.

New Mexico State: The Aggies are expected to have their full rotation available.

Environment

The Pan American Center has been a fortress for New Mexico State, where they’ve gone 7-2 this season. Missouri State enters with confidence from strong offensive performances, making this a clash of home strength vs road-tested resilience.

Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: New Mexico State 76, Missouri State 73

• Missouri State +5.5 → Best Bet. Their offensive efficiency and ability to keep games close suggest they can stay within the number.
• Under 143.5 → Total play. Both teams’ slower pace points toward a combined score below the line.

New Mexico State’s depth and shooting rhythm should carry them to victory, while Missouri State’s offense keeps the spread in play. Expect a moderately high-scoring contest with totals landing just under the posted number.

Handicappers and Service Plays

Conference USA games often create unique betting opportunities. Our Best Handicappers spotlight experts who consistently read market trends, while the Leaderboard highlights who’s riding hot streaks. Premium insights in Buy Picks provide deeper reasoning behind each wager. For contests like Missouri State vs New Mexico State, expert perspectives can help identify sharp angles in spreads and totals.