Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions January 23rd 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning head to Chicago for a Friday night clash with the Blackhawks at United Center, puck drop set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay enters this one heavily favored on the moneyline at -250, while Chicago sits as a significant home underdog at +207. The Lightning have been trending back toward elite form after an early January surge, while the Blackhawks continue to play out another rebuild year with flashes of promise but no consistent results. This is a classic matchup of firepower versus growing pains.

Chicago is still figuring things out with a young roster and goaltending rotation that hasn’t been stable. They’ve dropped three straight and haven’t beaten a playoff-caliber team in weeks. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is ramping back up — especially on the power play — and comes off a 4–1 win over the Kings where their top six dominated. With a puck line near even money, there’s some real opportunity here to fade the Blackhawks and attack the Lightning’s momentum.

Lightning vs Blackhawks Odds

Here’s a look at the current betting odds for this Lightning vs Blackhawks matchup. As always, make sure to stay updated on the latest NHL odds leading up to puck drop, especially for potential goalie confirmations or injury news.

Team	Moneyline	Puck Line	Total
Tampa Bay Lightning	-250	-1.5 (+106)	O 6.0 (-114)
Chicago Blackhawks	+207	+1.5 (-129)	U 6.0 (-107)

Lightning Betting Form

Tampa Bay has picked up steam lately. After a midseason slump, they’ve now won four of their last five, with improved play at both ends of the ice. Offensively, Nikita Kucherov is in MVP form again, Brayden Point is producing, and the Bolts’ top power play unit has scored in four straight games. They’re averaging 3.6 goals over their last five outings and finally controlling possession metrics again, which has been the key to their turnaround.

They’ve also looked sharper defensively. Andrei Vasilevskiy, assuming he starts, has been solid lately, allowing just five goals in his last three starts. If he’s in net, the Lightning gain a clear goaltending edge. If it’s a backup, that tightens the total market but doesn’t necessarily flip the value on side or puck line. Check the Tampa Bay Lightning schedule and stats for updated results and metrics.

Injury-wise, Tampa’s lineup has stabilized, but it’s always worth monitoring the Tampa Bay Lightning injury report for late scratches — especially on back-to-backs or long trips. As of now, there’s nothing major shifting the betting outlook.

Blackhawks Betting Form

Chicago continues to show glimpses of progress but can’t sustain it against playoff-level opponents. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, and while Connor Bedard has brought flashes of brilliance, the Hawks lack consistent scoring and defensive structure. They’re giving up over 3.4 goals per game over their last ten, and their penalty kill ranks near the bottom of the league — not a great sign when facing Tampa Bay’s dangerous PP unit.

The Blackhawks are at home, but their record at United Center hasn’t provided much advantage. In fact, they’ve failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six home games. Defensive breakdowns and goaltending inconsistencies (with no clear starter) have made them one of the tougher teams to back on either side or total markets. Check the Chicago Blackhawks schedule and stats to see just how frequently they fall behind early — another reason the puck line looms large.

Injuries haven’t helped either. They’ve been without key blue-liners and some forward depth, and it’s unclear if they’ll get any returns before Friday. Keep an eye on the Chicago Blackhawks injury report for the latest availability updates.

Lightning vs Blackhawks Matchup Breakdown

This one tilts heavily in Tampa’s favor on paper, and the betting markets reflect that. There are a few key matchup edges that reinforce the case for the Lightning, especially on the puck line:

• Tampa’s power play (top 5) vs Chicago’s penalty kill (bottom 3)
• Blackhawks allowing the third-most shots per game
• Lightning’s top line controlling Corsi/Fenwick at 5-on-5
• Major edge in goaltending and special teams

What hurts the Blackhawks the most here is their inability to keep games close when the opponent pushes tempo. Tampa Bay is more than capable of putting up a 3-goal period, and if the Hawks chase, the game opens up and puck line value grows. There’s a slight risk of the total creeping over if Chicago contributes anything offensively, but the safer angle still leans under unless Tampa hits four-plus on their own.

For bettors looking to sharpen their approach, our NHL betting guide can help identify how to approach these lopsided games with smarter puck line or total strategies.

Lightning vs Blackhawks Predictions and Best Bets

Let’s be direct — this is a strong puck line spot for Tampa Bay. At -1.5 (+106), the price is playable, especially against a team like Chicago that regularly loses by multiple goals. The Lightning are in better form, have the goaltending edge, and hold every meaningful advantage in the matchup. The moneyline is steep at -250, but the puck line gives you real value for the favorite.

For the total, it’s trickier. The number at 6 is sharp — if Tampa shows up and scores 4+, the Over is alive. But if they keep it tight defensively and Chicago continues to sputter, this finishes 4–1 or 3–1 and sneaks under. I’d pass the total unless you see late goalie news that pushes it one way or the other. Right now, the best angle is to play the favorite and trust the form.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+106)

NHL Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats

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Use these tools along with our expert betting guide to stay sharp and make confident bets — especially in matchups like this where the public perception doesn’t always match sharp angles.