How to Bet on Politics

The actual process of betting on politics is similar to that of traditional sports betting. Only a few simple steps are involved, and you can get started in a matter of minutes of reading this.

To get started betting on politics, you first need to find a sportsbook that offers political betting action. This might be a bit more difficult to find a brick-and-mortar sportsbook, but many online sportsbooks have bets available. BetUS, for example, offers a wide range of US and foreign election odds. 

Once you find a sportsbook that has odds, all you need to do is create an account and make a deposit. From there, simply choose the bets you like, add them to your bet slip, and place your wager!

Just like with any other form of betting, we highly recommend doing your research and reviewing multiple sportsbooks before placing your bets. The more context into a bet you have, the better.

How Betting on Politics is Different From Betting on Sports

In one sense, betting on politics isn’t much different than betting on sports. Simply pick the scenario you feel is most likely to happen and then bet on it. However, if you zoom out, you will notice one major difference between the two types of betting.

The biggest difference between the two is how you research your bets and find value.

With sports betting, there are thousands upon thousands of statistics that you can use to find patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and more. This helps to ensure you’re making a bet that has the highest possible chance of winning.

With politics, you can’t rely on historical data as much. Instead, you have to leverage any current data or knowledge that you have in front of you. This can be polling numbers, surveys, or just basic observations. This is all factored in when the sportsbooks set the lines for certain bets.

Another big difference between betting on sports and politics is the variety of bet types you have to choose from. Traditional sports betting typically provides you with a huge selection of bet types, such as moneyline bets, totals, spreads, parlays, prop bets, and more. Political betting is a bit more straightforward, and focuses more on “this or that” type prop bets.

Why Bet on Politics?

There are many reasons why bettors should choose to bet on politics, including:

• Diversification – Betting on politics is a great way to diversify your betting portfolio and spread out your wagers. There are many political events you can bet on throughout the year, and they all offer very attractive odds.

• Potential Payout – Perhaps the best reason to bet on politics is the potential payout it provides. Setting betting lines isn’t as straightforward for politics as it is for sporting events. Therefore, sportsbooks are hesitant to list clear favorites in their odds. This gives you a greater chance of earning a big payout if you win your bet. 

• Seasonality – Unlike most sports, an election year only comes around every four years. During an election year, you will see a dramatic increase in the bets available to place. This is when you can find the highest value possible with political betting.

How to Read Political Betting Odds

Political betting odds are read and understood the same way as sports betting odds. For sportsbooks that use American odds, the favored side of the bet will be represented with negative (-) odds while the underdog will be listed with positive (+) odds.

For example, let’s take a look ahead to the upcoming 2024 election. BetUS has the odds listed below:

Candidate	Odds
Donald Trump	-175
Joe Biden	+130
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	+2500

Based on the odds provided by BetUS above, Donald Trump is listed as the favorite to win the upcoming election. This makes Biden the runner-up and puts RFK in third.

Payouts for the odds are also the same as sports betting. In this example, you’d need to wager $175 on Trump to win $100, and wager $100 on Biden to win $130. 

Types of Political Bets

Just like with any other type of betting event, there are multiple different types of bets that you can make on political events. While some of them are straightforward, others are a bit obscure and require a fair amount of luck to win.

Outright Bets

Outright bets are the most simplified type of bet you can make for politics. Simply place your bet on who you think will win the upcoming election. This is the most popular bet for all elections, including the general election, primaries, and midterms. 

The odds on outright bets tend to shift more dramatically than those for regular sporting events, so be sure to keep an eye on the news and any candidate updates that might cause a swing in odds that either favors or hurts your anticipated bet.

Outright bets can be placed on the candidates specifically or the winning party broadly. 

Margin of Victory

Rather than just betting on a winner, you also have the option to bet on what the margin of victory will be. Taking the gamble on a landslide election could pay off big if it happens, but it’s far more likely that your best betting value will be found somewhere in the middle ground.

When it comes to betting on politics, there are a couple of options for voting on the margin of victory. You can choose to bet the difference between the number of electoral votes the candidates received, or you can bet on the margin between them for the popular vote.

Candidate Props

Candidate props are easily the most entertaining type of bet that you can make when betting on politics. These  wagers that are not at all affected by the outcome of the election itself. Prop bets can be based on upcoming debates, campaigns, press conferences, and more.

Some popular candidate props bets over the past couple of years include:

• Estimated net worth of the next election winner
• Over/under how many times a country or person is named during a speech
• Will Joe Biden trip during his next press conference?
• Will Donald Trump test positive for drug use?

There really is no limit to the type of political prop bets you’ll find, and most of their outcomes are based on luck alone. Some of the best prop bets become available for televised events, such as debates and press conferences. 

Referendum Betting

Referendum betting is less popular than the other bet types mentioned above, but it still has its place among political betting. With referendum betting, you can wager on the outcome of certain amendments or laws getting passed or denied.

Based on which state the referendum is being voted on, you can give yourself an edge by studying their other laws and policies. If a specific referendum seems to go alongside other policies and is logical for the state, you can assume it has a higher chance of being voted through.

Political Futures

The majority of political bets can typically be considered a futures bet, since betting lines become available so far ahead of the event. However, these futures cover much more than just the presidential election.

Future political bets can allow you to gamble on many things, such as the election winner, next senate leaders, next governor of specific states, and more. There is really no limit to what can be considered a futures bet when it comes to political betting, and it’s a great place to find betting value if you are someone who is up-to-date on their politics.

Political Betting Markets to Consider

When mentioning betting on politics, most people automatically assume that you’re referring to politics in the United States – and this is a fair assumption. After all, the US has the largest political betting market by far, and the US election results always have compounding effects that reach the rest of the world. With so much media attention around the election, most of the odds you find will be for US politics.

However, this doesn’t mean that you can’t find other political betting markets. Most sportsbooks that offer betting on politics also feature other markets, such as:

• UK Politics
• Australian Politics
• The EU
• Russia

Although the selection may not be as large, there are still many political betting opportunities for bettors living outside the US.

Tips for Betting on Politics

Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to betting on politics. Luckily, we have some tips here that can help you improve your chances of placing a winning bet. Remember, there is no such thing as a risk-free bet, so always double-check your bets before placing them. 

Always Follow Up on Your Wager

If you place a long-term future wager on a candidate to win a presidential election, the odds are likely to shift significantly as the election draws near. While you can’t reverse your wager without losing money, you can double down at other sportsbooks. 

For example, let’s say you placed a wager on Donald Trump to be president for +200 at sportsbook A in January. Your wager is locked in, but as political events unfold, the odds shift, and now they read as -300. You’ve secured the best payout, but you can double down on your wager at another sportsbook. If you place a smaller wager at sportsbook B on the -300 odds, you stand a pretty good chance of making more profit from the same outcome. 

Always keep an eye on the odds for wagers you’ve already placed, as they might show you new possibilities for profit. 

Consider Advanced Polls

Unlike sports, politicians don’t really have a stat-sheet you can look at to gauge their performance. What they say and do can drastically change the public’s opinion of them, and looking at polls is the best way to gauge how they’re doing. 

Public polls are the most accurate measure of a candidate’s performance, they’re a good metric, and the metric that sportsbooks used to price lines. 

In the months leading up to the US Presidential election, there are almost always daily polls at big news outlets. However, it might be more helpful for you to look at polls for swing states. You can place wagers on the results of certain states, and polls in swing states will help you see which way the public is leaning. 

Sign Up for Picks and Predictions

If you’re new to political betting or just don’t have the time to do the research, signing up for political betting picks is a good way to get ahead. 

Handicappers don’t just look at sports (though, that is the bulk of their focus), they also examine wagers for political events. Sometimes, betting on politics can be more profitable than on sports because lines can be inflated based on biased data. 

Using a handicapping service can help you make more informed wagers, and allow you to focus on other betting markets. Plus, handicappers assess implied probability, which can help you place wagers more confidently. 

Make Political Betting Profitable

Betting on politics can be a very fun, exciting, and profitable experience. People who follow the news and politics closely can find a lot of success from, and there is never a shortage of things to bet on.

Just like with any other form of betting, it’s important to do your research and manage your bankroll appropriately. Always keep an eye on your budget and don’t chase your losses.

If you’re looking for an extra edge over the sportsbook, don’t hesitate to check out our premium handicapping service. We can help provide you with all the data and context needed to place the best bets possible.