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Old Dominion vs Arkansas State Picks and Predictions – Wednesday January 28, 2026
Old Dominion heads to Jonesboro for a Sun Belt matchup with Arkansas State on Wednesday, January 28, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. It’s at First National Bank Arena, streaming on ESPN+, and the market is telling you this is Arkansas State’s game to control.
The Monarchs are 6-15 overall and just 2-11 away from home, which matters a lot in a spot like this against a team that plays fast and scores in bunches. Arkansas State is 13-8 and 7-1 at home, laying 8.5 with a total of 160.5. This sets up as a tempo game, and the side comes down to whether Old Dominion can keep its defense organized for 40 minutes in a high-possession environment.
Old Dominion is coming off an 83-77 loss to Troy where KC Shaw exploded for 34. Arkansas State is off an 82-81 loss to Georgia State, a game where the Red Wolves shot it well but still let the finish get away. Both teams should show urgency, but Arkansas State’s home profile is the cleaner betting angle.
Old Dominion vs Arkansas State Odds
These are the current betting lines, and you should keep an eye on the latest college basketball odds as tip approaches in case the spread or total gets pushed by late money.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | +320 | +8.5 (-106) | O/U 160.5 (-110) |
| Arkansas State | -410 | -8.5 (-114) | O/U 160.5 (-110) |
Old Dominion Betting Form
Old Dominion has been playing closer games than the record suggests, but the road splits are still loud. The Monarchs are 2-11 away, and that usually shows up late when legs go and defensive rotations get a half-step slow. That’s especially dangerous against a team that wants to run and can generate easy points without having to grind every half-court possession.
The best case for Old Dominion is shot-making plus composure. Shaw gives them a real scoring ceiling, and Jordan Battle’s spacing matters if Arkansas State helps aggressively and dares shooters to beat them. Old Dominion’s path is keeping this game in the half court, limiting live-ball turnovers, and turning the possessions they do get into clean looks. You can dig deeper into matchup context and trends through Old Dominion stats and results.
Even if they are “live” to hang around, they can’t afford empty trips. If Old Dominion has a stretch of rushed threes or sloppy ball security, it plays directly into Arkansas State’s tempo, and the spread becomes hard to protect.
Arkansas State Betting Form
Arkansas State’s offense is built for home runs. They average 83.0 points per game, they rebound well, and they get value possessions at the line, which is a big reason they can separate from teams that don’t have the same physical depth. At home they are 7-1, and that’s the profile you want when laying points: they keep their scoring level high and force opponents to match their pace.
The Georgia State loss was tight, but it also confirmed what matters for this matchup: Arkansas State can get to efficient offense without being perfect from three, and their rebounding volume gives them second-chance swings that travel well from possession to possession. If Old Dominion is forced to play small to find scoring, Arkansas State’s work on the glass becomes a steady edge.
The other betting-friendly piece is how Arkansas State can score in different ways. If the game speeds up, they are comfortable. If the game stalls, they can still get points at the stripe and avoid the long droughts that kill favorites. For more team context, rotations, and performance splits, check Arkansas State schedule and stats.
Old Dominion vs Arkansas State Matchup Breakdown
This game is going to be about possession count and which team dictates shot quality. Arkansas State wants tempo, early-clock looks, and pressure that turns rebounds into transition. Old Dominion’s best defense is making Arkansas State play against a set floor, because once the Red Wolves get you running, the math changes quickly. More possessions usually favors the deeper, more efficient offense.
Shot profile matters here. Arkansas State is comfortable living in the paint and drawing contact, which is a problem for an underdog trying to survive with a short rotation. If Old Dominion is forced into foul trouble, it loses the ability to contest at the rim and rebound. That’s a classic way favorites cover without needing a huge three-point night.
On the other end, Old Dominion’s offense can absolutely score, but it has to avoid the giveaways that create instant points. Turnovers are the silent killer for road dogs because they don’t just end your possession, they often become layups. If Old Dominion is forced into extended half-court possessions late in the shot clock, you also get lower-quality attempts and fewer trips to the line.
If you want a quick refresher on how to translate pace, shot quality, and late-game fouling into side and total decisions, the Expert Betting Guide is a solid framework for reading games like this one.
Old Dominion vs Arkansas State Predictions and Best Bets
The market is already pricing Arkansas State like the better team and the better situational spot, and I’m not eager to step in front of that. The home record is real, and the matchup advantages are the ones that tend to show up consistently: rebounding volume, free-throw scoring, and the ability to play fast without losing structure.
Old Dominion can keep this close if Shaw and Battle hit shots and the Monarchs protect the ball, but that’s a narrow path on the road. The wider range of outcomes favors Arkansas State because the Red Wolves can win even when their shooting is average. They can cover by stacking small edges: second-chance points, a few extra free throws, and transition buckets off mistakes.
The total is the tricky part. A 160.5 number is high, and Old Dominion likely prefers a slower game, but Arkansas State can drag opponents into pace. If Old Dominion’s offense is efficient enough to avoid long droughts, you can get a scoreboard game. If the Monarchs’ turnovers spike or they go cold for a five-minute stretch, the under can still cash even with Arkansas State scoring.
Best Bet: Arkansas State -8.5
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
If you’re playing a full slate, don’t treat this as a standalone wager. Compare your number to the market and shop your angles through the daily college basketball picks, especially if the spread moves off key margins late in the day.
For bettors who like tying sides and totals to proven profiles, it also helps to track who’s actually beating the market. The best handicappers page is where you can follow consistent performers, and the leaderboard makes it easy to see who’s running hot and who’s sustaining long-term edge.
If you want more game-level context across the board, the NCAAB previews hub is the quickest way to scan matchups, and the college basketball teams hub is useful when you’re comparing profiles and splits. For broader angles and seasonal strategy, the main ScoresAndStats blog is worth a look, and if you’re deciding whether to follow services, the handicappers sites reviews plus the sportsbook reviews can help you line up the best fit. If you want premium plays for your card, you can always check out Buy Picks.
