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Mountain West action continues Saturday afternoon as Air Force visits Fresno State at the Save Mart Center. Tip-off is set for January 31, with both teams trying to climb out of the bottom tier of the conference standings. Fresno State gets the nod as home favorites in a matchup that’s expected to be a half-court grind.
Fresno State (9–12, 3–7 MWC) has defended well at home and limited turnovers, while Air Force (8–13, 2–8 MWC) continues to struggle to find offensive rhythm. The Falcons’ methodical tempo keeps games close, but they haven’t been able to finish late in league play. The line is tight for a reason — expect a low-possession game where execution matters most.
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Air Force Falcons vs Fresno State Bulldogs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force Falcons | +140 | +3.5 (-110) | O 127.5 (-110) |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | -170 | -3.5 (-110) | U 127.5 (-110) |
Air Force Falcons Betting Form
Air Force plays one of the slowest tempos in the country. Offensively, they run a lot of cuts and backdoor sets, relying on precision and spacing rather than raw talent. But when they don’t hit threes, their offense dries up fast. They’ve scored under 60 in five of their last seven games.
Defensively, they’re actually solid. They don’t foul often and keep opponents out of transition. That said, their rebounding is a major concern — they allow too many second-chance points, especially on the road.
To monitor injuries and availability, check the Air Force Falcons injury report. For pace metrics and recent trends, see the Air Force Falcons stats and results.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Form
Fresno State has quietly covered in three of its last five and is showing better rhythm at home. Their defense is the anchor — they rank top five in the Mountain West in opponent FG% and top three in defensive rebounding rate.
Offensively, they’re not going to run away from you, but they can work inside and get to the line. Their guards are taking care of the ball better lately, which makes a huge difference in close games. Still, this team needs to shoot better from deep to pull away from anyone.
For player updates, check the Fresno State Bulldogs injury report. For game logs and shooting trends, see the Fresno State Bulldogs schedule and stats.
Air Force Falcons vs Fresno State Bulldogs Matchup Breakdown
This matchup should be a grind. Both teams are near the bottom in adjusted tempo and prefer half-court execution. The difference likely comes in rebounding and late-game foul shooting.
Key matchup angles:
- Air Force is bottom 10 nationally in offensive rebounding rate
- Fresno State allows just 0.88 PPP at home
- Falcons are 2–7 ATS on the road
- Total possessions projected: low 60s
If Fresno State controls the boards and limits turnovers, they should cover a short spread.
Air Force Falcons vs Fresno State Bulldogs Predictions and Best Bets
I’m leaning Fresno State -3.5. It’s not a flashy play, but the Bulldogs are the more physical team, defend better, and have a clear edge on the glass. Air Force’s tempo is annoying — and might keep them close for 30 minutes — but their offensive floor is too low.
As for the total, I’d lean Under 127.5. It’s low, yes — but this could easily be a 60–58 type of finish. Neither team wants to push tempo, and neither is shooting well right now.
Best Bet: Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5 (-110).
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