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Iona and Siena meet Thursday, February 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at MVP Arena in Albany, with the game on ESPNU. This is a MAAC matchup that’s priced like Siena has separation, but the records say it’s closer than that. Siena is 16-7 and playing like a real top-tier league team, yet Iona at 14-9 is not the kind of underdog you usually want to lay a full 7.5 against unless you trust the favorite’s defense and pace control.
Iona is coming off a 71-70 loss to Fairfield where they were in position to win late, which tells you their floor in tight games is fine. Siena just handled Canisius 78-63 and has been on a clean run recently. The spread implies Siena can dictate this game start to finish. The total at 140.5 suggests a pretty normal MAAC scoring environment, not a rock fight.
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Iona vs Siena Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated numbers leading up to tipoff and keep tabs on the latest college basketball odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iona Gaels | +285 | +7.5 (-113) | O 140.5 (-117) |
| Siena Saints | -387 | -7.5 (-110) | U 140.5 (-110) |
Iona Gaels Betting Form
Iona’s offense is more dangerous than the market is pricing if you’re looking strictly at the spread. They average 73.5 points per game and they can stretch defenses with volume threes, making 9.4 per game on 35.5%. That profile matters against a favorite laying 7.5 because it creates the most important thing for an underdog: quick scoring runs. CJ Anthony’s 20 against Fairfield is a good example of what keeps Iona live. They can get a quality look, they can hit from outside, and they can answer when the opponent makes a push.
The other piece is how they’ve performed as a dog. Covering at a strong rate as an underdog tells you they’ve been undervalued in spots like this, and it fits the eye test. They’re comfortable in games that stay within two possessions. If the threes are falling and they’re not giving away possessions with turnovers, +7.5 is a lot of room.
Siena Saints Betting Form
Siena has been steadier and more consistent, and that’s why they’re laying the number. The Canisius win was efficient offense, and Justice Shoats plus Francis Folefac gives them a balanced attack where they can score from multiple areas. Siena’s field goal percentage is strong, and they don’t need to rely entirely on threes to score. That’s important against Iona because you don’t want to get dragged into a pure perimeter variance game.
Siena has also been reliable as a favorite. That doesn’t automatically mean they cover this number, but it does mean they usually handle business and avoid the kind of sloppy performance that turns a “should win” game into a final-minute sweat. The key for Siena is defending the arc and winning the glass enough to prevent Iona’s threes from becoming back-breaking. If Siena closes out well and forces Iona into tougher twos, they can build separation gradually.
Iona Gaels vs Siena Saints Matchup Breakdown
This comes down to whether Siena can control Iona’s perimeter volume. Iona’s best path is three-point volume and spacing, getting hot enough to keep the score within two possessions for most of the night. Siena’s best path is efficiency and control, using solid shot quality and rebounding to keep Iona from living off second chances and transition threes.
The total at 140.5 is right in the range where a normal, competitive game lands. If Siena is scoring efficiently and Iona is making threes at a normal rate, the Over is in play. If Siena’s defense forces Iona into longer possessions and lower-quality perimeter looks, the game can slow, and the Under becomes more attractive. The spread and total together suggest the market expects Siena to win with control but still score enough to keep the game from turning into a grind.
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UC San Diego Tritons
Open
vs
Feb 07, 2026 23:59 EST
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Score
–
-6.50 -106
Spread
+6.50 -106
o+141.00-108
Total
u+141.00-108
–
Moneyline
–
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vs
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Open
vs
Feb 07, 2026 23:30 EST
–
Score
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-12.50 -106
Spread
+12.50 -106
o+143.00-108
Total
u+143.00-108
–
Moneyline
–
BYU Cougars
vs
Houston Cougars
Open
vs
Feb 07, 2026 22:30 EST
–
Score
–
–
Spread
–
o+149.50-110
Total
u+149.50-110
–
Moneyline
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Iona Gaels vs Siena Saints Predictions and Best Bets
I lean Iona +7.5. The number feels inflated relative to how these teams score, and Iona’s ability to hit threes gives them a reliable way to stay inside it even if Siena wins cleanly. I’m not calling for the upset, but a 4–7 point Siena win is a very normal outcome in this kind of conference game, especially if Iona hits a few threes late and makes the margin look smaller than the game felt.
On the total, I lean Over 140.5. The combined scoring averages and Iona’s three-point profile create a realistic path into the mid 140s, and Siena’s offense is efficient enough to do its part. The risk is Siena controlling pace and turning this into a more methodical game, but I still think the more likely script is both teams scoring in the low 70s.
Best Bet: Iona Gaels +7.5 (-113).
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Conference matchups are where bettors can get the most mispriced numbers, but only if you stay disciplined about game script. The market often overreacts to records and recent streaks, while the better approach is focusing on shot profile, late-game scoring behavior, and whether the underdog has a real way to score when the favorite is playing well.
If you’re building your Thursday card, start with today’s college basketball picks to see where the strongest leans are forming across the slate, then narrow down to games where the price is giving you value instead of just confirming the obvious.
