Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions February 6th 2026

The Minnesota Timberwolves look to protect their home floor tonight at the Target Center as they host a struggling New Orleans Pelicans squad. Minnesota currently holds a 32-20 record and is firmly in the mix for a top seed in the Western Conference. They have been on a tear lately, winning five of their last six games, including a narrow 128-126 road victory over Toronto on Wednesday. The team is buzzing after the trade deadline, especially since they managed to retain Jaden McDaniels while adding offensive spark plug Ayo Dosunmu to their rotation.

New Orleans arrives in Minneapolis at a crossroads. With a 13-40 record, the Pelicans are sitting near the bottom of the conference standings and have lost three straight contests. Their last outing was a heartbreaking 141-137 overtime loss to the Bucks, where defensive lapses late in the game proved fatal. The team also made moves at the deadline, shipping out defensive anchor Jose Alvarado to the Knicks for young wing Dalen Terry. This matchup kicks off at 8:00 PM ET and features a Timberwolves team that has already beaten New Orleans twice this season.

This game feels like a mismatch on paper, but double-digit spreads in the NBA are never as simple as they look. Minnesota has established itself as one of the most efficient scoring teams in the league, ranking fourth in points per game and field goal percentage. New Orleans, despite their record, still possesses high-end scoring talent in Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson. The Pelicans will need to find a way to shore up a defense that allowed Milwaukee to shoot over 60 percent from the floor if they want to avoid another blowout on the road.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans Odds

Lines for this Western Conference battle favor the home team heavily, but bettors should always keep an eye on the market. You can find the latest NBA odds or specifically monitor Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans odds to see if the spread moves before tip-off.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Minnesota Timberwolves	-461	-11.0 (-110)	U 236.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans	+360	+11.0 (-112)	O 236.5 (-110)

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Form

Minnesota is playing with the kind of cohesion that makes them a dangerous bet regardless of the opponent. They are coming off a gutsy win in Toronto where Anthony Edwards dropped 30 points and showed why he is a legitimate MVP candidate. The Timberwolves offense is humming, averaging 119.6 points per game on a 56.3 percent effective field goal rate. They are particularly effective in transition and have used their length to disrupt opponents. The addition of Ayo Dosunmu adds another 15 points per game and elite 45.1 percent three-point shooting to a bench that was already deep.

The defensive side of the ball has been solid, though they have allowed games to get high-scoring recently. Jaden McDaniels remains the primary stopper on the wing, and his ability to stay in front of opposing stars is vital for Chris Finch’s scheme. When looking at the Minnesota Timberwolves injury report, the core rotation appears healthy, which has allowed the coaching staff to maintain consistent minute patterns. Bettors should note that Minnesota is 28-12 as a favorite this season. You can dig deeper into their season-long trends on the Minnesota Timberwolves stats and results page.

I think the psychological boost of the trade deadline cannot be ignored. The team kept its core together and made a proactive move to get better. Minnesota is 4th in the league in shooting percentage, which makes them very difficult to stop if they get hot early at home. They have covered the spread in 60 percent of their last ten games, making them a reliable choice for those looking for consistency.

New Orleans Pelicans Betting Form

The Pelicans are a team searching for answers after another defensive collapse. Interim coach James Borrego was blunt after the Bucks loss, stating that their point-of-attack defense was too soft. Trading away Jose Alvarado takes away their most aggressive perimeter defender, and it remains to be seen if Dalen Terry can fill that void immediately. Offensively, the Pelicans are actually quite capable. They average 114.5 points per game and rank 6th in field goal attempts per game. Trey Murphy III is coming off a massive 44-point performance and will likely be the focal point again tonight.

The primary issue for New Orleans is their inability to stop anyone in the paint. They allowed the Bucks to shoot over 60 percent from the field, and a team like Minnesota will exploit that lack of resistance. Zion Williamson is scoring 20 points per game, but the team lacks the defensive identity needed to turn those points into wins. The New Orleans Pelicans injury report will be worth watching to see if any late scratches occur after the recent roster shuffle. For a full breakdown of their road splits, visit the New Orleans Pelicans stats and results page.

New Orleans plays at a fast pace, ranking 8th in possessions per game. This style often leads to high-scoring games, but it also leaves their defense exposed when they aren’t hitting shots. They have lost three in a row and are 11-20 against the spread as an underdog this year. Finding value on the Pelicans usually requires catching them on a night when their outside shooting is elite.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans Matchup Breakdown

This matchup features two teams that like to play fast, which typically points toward a lot of possessions and scoring opportunities. Minnesota holds the clear edge in efficiency, shooting 48.3 percent as a team compared to the Pelicans’ more volatile numbers. The battle between Anthony Edwards and the Pelicans’ wing defenders will be the primary focal point. Without Alvarado to annoy Edwards at the top of the key, Minnesota’s star could have a field day attacking the rim and creating open looks for shooters like Dosunmu.

• Minnesota is 4th in the league in points per game (119.6).
• New Orleans is 8th in pace but 25th in defensive points allowed.
• The Timberwolves have won both previous meetings this season.
• Trey Murphy III is averaging 32 points over his last three games.

Rebounding will also play a massive role. Minnesota is disciplined on the glass, while New Orleans can be inconsistent. If the Timberwolves can limit the Pelicans to one shot per possession, they should be able to run away with this game. I would recommend checking out the NBA betting guide to see how to value these high-pace matchups. It is also a good idea to consult the advanced NBA betting strategies for more on how to handle double-digit favorites.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions and Best Bets

The 11-point spread is a significant number, even for a team as good as Minnesota. The Timberwolves should win this game straight up, but covering nearly a dozen points is a different story. New Orleans has the offensive firepower to hang around, especially if Trey Murphy III continues his hot streak from deep. I think Minnesota wins comfortably by 8 to 10 points, but the Pelicans have a high enough ceiling to sneak in for a back-door cover in the final minutes. The Pelicans score 114.5 points per game, which is enough to stay competitive if the Wolves take their foot off the gas.

As for the total, the line of 236.5 feels a bit inflated. While both teams play fast, Minnesota’s defense is much better at home, and I expect them to make life difficult for Zion Williamson in the paint. The model projects a total score around 230, which gives us some decent cushion on the under. Minnesota’s ability to defend without fouling will keep the Pelicans off the free-throw line and help keep the score manageable.

I am leaning toward the underdog on the spread. Minnesota is the better team, but New Orleans plays with enough pace and volume to keep the final margin respectable. Perhaps the Wolves lead by 15 for most of the night, but a late surge from the Pelicans should bring them within the number.

Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans +11.0 (-112).

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