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The Air Force Falcons head to Albuquerque this Tuesday for a daunting Mountain West matchup against the New Mexico Lobos at The Pit. Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET, with the action streaming live on MWN. New Mexico, sitting at 19-6, looks to maintain their grip on a top-three conference seed, while the struggling Falcons (3-22) seek their first true road win of the season.
The odds tell the story of two teams heading in opposite directions: New Mexico enters as a massive 27.5-point favorite. When these two met earlier in January, the Lobos cruised to a 91-49 victory in Colorado Springs, outclassing the Falcons in nearly every statistical category.
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Air Force vs New Mexico Odds
Despite the lopsided spread, high-volume action is expected at The Pit. You can track the latest movements and market shifts on the latest college basketball odds page.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Air Force | +4000 | +27.5 (-110) | O 148.5 (-113) |
| New Mexico | -40000 | -27.5 (-111) | U 148.5 (-112) |
Air Force Falcons Betting Form
Air Force has endured a brutal stretch, recently falling 93-63 to Fresno State. While the season record is bleak, freshman Lucas Hobin has emerged as a bright spot, recently dropping 26 points on 57% shooting. Fellow freshman Kam Sanders has also shown promise as a playmaker, recently recording an 11-assist game.
The Falcons’ biggest hurdle in this matchup is their health. Key forwards Caleb Walker and Eli Robinson are both listed as questionable for Tuesday night. Without their presence in the paint, Air Force will struggle to contain a New Mexico team that dominated the boards in their first meeting. Interestingly, the Falcons are 9-1 to the Over in their last 10 games, largely due to a defense that ranks near the bottom of the country. Check the Air Force injury report for official lineup status and view their full history on the Air Force stats and results page.
New Mexico Lobos Betting Form
New Mexico is a perfect 13-2 at home this season, utilizing the altitude and the raucous atmosphere of The Pit to overwhelm opponents. They are coming off a gritty 70-64 road win against Grand Canyon, led by Jake Hall’s 23 points. Hall has been lethal from deep, while Tomislav Buljan provides the interior muscle, nearing a double-double on a nightly basis.
The Lobos offense ranks 98th nationally, averaging over 80 points per game, and they excel at forcing turnovers—a nightmare for an Air Force team that struggles with ball security. While New Mexico has been a reliable winner, they are only 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games, often letting large leads slip late in the second half. For a deeper look at their efficiency metrics, visit the New Mexico schedule and stats page and stay updated with the New Mexico injury report regarding Milos Vicentic.
Air Force vs New Mexico Matchup Breakdown
This game features a massive disparity in offensive efficiency. New Mexico’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% should thrive against an Air Force defense that allows opponents to shoot over 55% from the floor.
- The Rebounding Gap: In their first meeting, New Mexico held a +13 rebounding margin. If Walker and Robinson are out for Air Force, that gap could widen significantly.
- The Pace of Play: New Mexico likes to run, but Air Force’s “Princeton-style” remnants often try to slow the game down. However, the Falcons’ recent trend of high-scoring losses suggests they are being forced out of their preferred tempo.
For more insights into Mountain West power rankings, check out our college basketball championship odds tracker.
Air Force vs New Mexico Predictions and Best Bets
While 27.5 points is a staggering spread, New Mexico beat this team by 42 points just a month ago. Air Force’s 0-9 road record and mounting injury list make them a difficult team to back, even with a four-touchdown head start. However, the Under 148.5 feels like the sharper play. Our model projects an 85-60 Lobos victory, which lands just under the total and suggests the spread is priced nearly perfectly.
Best Bet: Air Force +27.5 (-110) and Under 148.5 (-112).
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Finding value in massive conference spreads requires an expert eye. You can find more of today’s college basketball picks for the rest of the Tuesday schedule.
Our top sports handicappers have a long history of success in the Mountain West; visit the handicapper leaderboard to see who is hot. For those looking to invest in long-term data, you can buy expert picks from our verified pros.
